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Favorites are a wagon in the NFL right now.
Week 2 saw more of the same from the favorites, as favorites of at least four points improved to 12-0 straight up (SU) this season.
Week 3 features some more solid matchups to pick apart for your pick’em or Survivor pool.
Last week, more than 85 percent of the contestants in the Las Vegas-based Circa Sportsbook survivor contest made it through.
In the Circa competition, 19% of entrants picked the Cowboys over the Giants, and they owe some thanks to kicker Brandon Aubrey for avoiding an early exit from the survivor pools.
This week poses even more lopsided matchups than last week.
Survivor Week 3 confidence rankings
| Confiidence Rank | Game/Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Bills vs. Dolphins |
| 2 | Packers @ Browns |
| 3 | Seahawks vs. Saints |
| 4 | Buccaneers vs. Jets |
| 5 | Chiefs @ Giants |
| 6 | Ravens vs. Lions |
| 7 | Colts @ Titans |
| 8 | Falcons @ Panthers |
| 9 | Vikings vs. Bengals |
| 10 | Chargers vs. Broncos |
| 11 | 49ers vs. Cardinals |
| 12 | Commanders vs. Raiders |
| 13 | Bears vs. Cowboys |
| 14 | Steelers @ Patriots |
| 15 | Eagles vs. Rams |
| 16 | Jaguars vs. Texans |
Bills (-12.5, BetMGM) vs. Dolphins
By far the biggest favorite of the week, many will attempt to avoid playing the Bills here on a short week in this “Thursday Night Football” matchup.
The Bills just embarrassed the Jets on the road and now host the Dolphins, whom they have beaten nine times in their last 10 matchups.
That’s even more startling when you consider the Dolphins have actually been solid in recent years and even a playoff team.
This week, while some participants may plan to save the Bills for later, it’s anticipated that around 30% of entries will choose Buffalo in the large Circa pool.
Packers (-8) at Browns
As much as I admire Joe Flacco, it’s tough to support the Browns right now. Flacco struggled last week, managing less than 200 passing yards and having difficulty connecting with his receivers.
The Ravens’ defense isn’t a world-beating unit at this point, but the Packers sure are.
The addition of Micah Parsons, as well as a healthy Rashan Gary, has given the Packers a defense that flies around all over the field.
Cleveland certainly has a tough spot, even at home, against Green Bay.
Betting on the NFL?
Seahawks (-7.5) vs. Saints
Here’s your punt play.
The Saints have quietly played pretty well, losing both games by one score.
Spencer Rattler, whom I continue to be a fan of, is completing passes at a 65 percent clip with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Seahawks, though, just beat a Steelers team that we are pretty sure is half-decent.
At least 15 percent of entries will have the Seahawks.
This is your “hang onto your marbles” choice for Week 3. Good luck to those who partake.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
