Oscars 2026 Predictions: Critics Spotlight Top Contenders for Best Picture Glory

As the anticipation builds for the Oscars, now just under two weeks away, the spotlight is naturally gravitating towards the ceremony’s most coveted accolade: Best Picture.

This year’s competition is fierce, with an impressive lineup of ten films all hoping to clinch the Academy’s prestigious top honor. Yet, amidst this diverse field, two films are emerging as front-runners, capturing the attention of audiences and critics alike.

Renowned film critics Erik Davis and Chris Connelly have been weighing in on the likely contenders for the Best Picture award, offering their insights into the movies that could potentially steal the show.

“We’re witnessing history with ‘Sinners,’ which has garnered 16 nominations, marking it as the most nominated film in Oscars history,” Davis remarked. “This year is particularly thrilling, not just because of the record-breaking achievements, but also due to the wealth of deeply personal narratives being celebrated. It feels like a captivating clash between the revered icons of the past and the emerging talents of the present, making this year exceptionally exciting.”

“First, you have a history that was made with sinners with 16 nominations, the most nominated film in Oscars history. So just going into the ceremony, you have history that’s already been made. But I also think this year is very exciting because a lot of deeply personal stories. You know, it really feels like this is, like, old school legends versus new school legends, and it’s a very exciting year for those reasons,” Davis said.

But the race is largely a battle between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.”

“I still think ‘One Battle After Another’ is the frontrunner. There’s a new casting category this year at the Oscars, a Best Casting. And at the Critics’ Choice Awards, ‘Sinners’ won that category. And then ‘One Battle After Another’ won best picture. So, I can almost envision a world where the same thing happens,” Davis said.

“There are two movies that really do seem to dominate the conversation. Sometimes when that happens, the Academy decides, well, maybe one movie should get Best Picture and the other movie should get Best Director,” Connelly said.

However, there is a second scenario.

“As these two movies occupy the major part of our conversation, ‘Hamnet,’ which from the beginning has always felt like a classic Oscar-worthy movie, could well come in there and take one of those prizes,” Connelly said.

“I think it’s ‘One Battle After Another,’ because you have to consider Paul Thomas Anderson and the career and the legacy of Paul Thomas Anderson. As you get to a point where the Oscars like someone’s due and I think this year, a lot of people feel this is Paul Thomas Anderson’s year to not only win best picture, but also best director,” Davis said.

Will Paul Thomas Anderson get his due? Could “Sinners” sink its teeth into Best Picture? Or could “Hamnet” pull off a surprise upset?

“I think every one of the major movies nominated is going to have something to brag about afterwards, like when they give out lollipops in kindergarten, everybody’s going to get a lollipop. We’re going to have to see who gets what lollipop,” Connelly said.

Come next Sunday night, we’ll finally see how this story ends.

March 15 is Oscar Sunday! Watch the 2026 Oscars live on ABC and Hulu.

Live red carpet coverage starts at 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT with “On The Red Carpet at the Oscars.”Catch all the action on the red carpet live on ABC, or stream on Hulu and OnTheRedCarpet.com.The 98th Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, begins at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT. and will be followed by “The Bachelorette: Before the First Rose.”