Centrist Democrats are keeping them guessing.

Heading into Tuesday’s vote to fund the federal government, almost a dozen House Democrats in Trump-won districts have yet to reveal if they’ll join Democratic leaders to oppose the GOP bill, or hop over the aisle to help Republicans send the package to the Senate.

Where they land and in what numbers could decide the bill’s fate in the lower chamber, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is scrambling at the eleventh hour to ease the concerns of on-the-fence Republicans, particularly conservative spending hawks, who have yet to commit their support. Just two GOP defections would sink the bill if Democrats are united against it, and already Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) is a sturdy no.

The razor-thin margins have put a spotlight on the battleground-district Democrats, who are under pressure to stick with their party in opposition to the package which Democrats say is a threat to basic public services around the country but also don’t want to expose themselves to GOP attacks that they supported a government shutdown. Already, GOP campaign operatives are honing their messaging barrage.

The vote presents the first real challenge of the new Congress for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and his leadership team, who are racing to rally their troops, maximize the opposition and force Johnson to get his divided conference in line. 

Heading into the vote, Democratic leaders are formally whipping rank-and-file Democrats to reject the measure, according to the office of Rep. Katherine Clark (Mass.), the Democratic whip. And Jeffries on Monday hammered the GOP bill for slashing federal benefits programs and suggested an overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote no. 

“The House Republican so-called spending bill does nothing to protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Quite the opposite. The Republican bill dramatically cuts health care, nutritional assistance for children and families, and veterans benefits,” Jeffries said Monday evening in the Capitol. 

“It is not something we could ever support,” he continued. “House Democrats will not be complicit in the Republican effort to hurt the American people.”

To be sure, Republicans face an uphill battle in blaming Democrats for a potential shutdown, since Republicans control all levers of power in Washington and the funding bill was drafted by GOP leaders without any Democratic input.

Still, GOP leaders are charging ahead with their go-it-alone strategy, daring Democrats to oppose the funding bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), and gambling that voters will blame Democrats, not Republicans, for the impasse.

The centrist Democrats in battleground districts will face the most pressure to cross the aisle. 

“The one time House Democrats decide to wake up and do some work, it’s to shut down the government just to score political points,” Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the Republicans’ campaign arm, said Monday in a statement. “They’re working overtime to make our country less safe and less prosperous putting politics over people.” 

Heading into the vote, at least three of the 13 Democrats who represent districts won by President Trump in November Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) are vowing to oppose the CR when it hits the floor on Tuesday afternoon.

Gonzales cited “over $30 billion” in cuts to the Veterans Administration.

“That gives everybody a lot of cover, I think,” he said. “I have more than 40,000 veterans in my district.”

“I would support a bill that protects the middle class, seniors, veterans, small businesses, emergency responders, farmers, growers, and producers, and our Northwest Ohio communities,” Kaptur said in an email. “I cannot in good conscience vote for legislation that puts Northwest Ohio and our people on the chopping block to pay for tax cuts for Billionaires.”

But most of those 13 lawmakers have declined to show their hands.

Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) said Monday evening he was still going through the bill.

And Rep. Henry Cuellar (D), whose Texas border district also went to Trump, appeared to leave the door open to crossing the aisle. 

“I do not support government shutdowns,” Cuellar said in an email. “As an appropriator, it has always been my top priority to ensure American taxpayer dollars are used efficiently and effectively. I am also focused on ensuring our vital services are protected. 

“It is time to get a bipartisan agreement.”

Jeffries and other Democratic leaders declined to say how many defections, if any, they’re expecting. 

The coming showdown puts moderates in a bind between voting for spending cuts to nondefense programs or risking what could be the first government shutdown in years. 

Republicans say the stopgap measure would increase funding for veterans’ health care and housing, and it funds the federal supplemental nutrition program for women, infants and children, or WIC. However, they say the bill would reduce funding for nondefense programs by about $13 billion below fiscal 2024 levels. 

By contrast, leadership aides say the bill would allow for a roughly $6 billion increase for defense programs above fiscal 2024, though below levels previously agreed to for fiscal 2025 under a bipartisan spending-limits deal struck almost two years ago.

Top Democratic appropriators in the House and Senate have accused Republicans of shortchanging programs such as the National Institutes of Health, nuclear weapons proliferation programs, agricultural research efforts and some farmer assistance at the United States Department of Agriculture.

They also say it falls short of putting what they see as necessary guardrails on Trump officials to administer funds as Congress intended.

“This bill is a blank check for Elon Musk and President Trump, and as the White House has said it creates more flexibility for this administration to steal from the middle class, seniors, veterans, working people, small businesses, and farmers to pay for tax breaks for billionaires,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said during a hearing on Monday.

“The answer should not be a full-year continuing resolution that cuts nondefense investments by $15 billion and defense by $3 billion compared to the Fiscal Responsibility Act agreement for 2025, which was reaffirmed by Leader Schumer and Speaker Johnson,” she said. 

Democratic criticisms have even extended beyond Congress, as D.C. officials have also made calls for changes to the recent legislation, which they say could force the district to run at lower levels.

“It would peg us at [fiscal 2024] levels, the levels that federal agencies are because they do not have an approved [fiscal 2025] budget, but we are not a federal agency,” D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) said from outside the Capitol on Monday. 

Bowser called the move a “$1.1 billion problem,” saying if the stopgap is not changed, the district “would be forced to reduce spending by $1.1 billion in only six months.”