() President Donald Trump’s announcement Wednesday that he’ll begin imposing baseline and reciprocal tariffs on several foreign trade partners will almost certainly result in a recession, predicted Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, who offered a couple of caveats.

“I don’t see how we avoid recession. I really don’t,” Zandi told “The Hill” on Wednesday. He placed the odds at “better than even,” or more than 50%, that a recession is imminent.

Zandi offered some qualifiers. He said the situation may not be as grave if countries do not respond “in kind” to the president’s tariffs.

Zandi also noted that Trump pivoted in the past when economic pain was felt at home.

Canada and Mexico were not included in the president’s announcement, although Trump’s plan for a 25% tariff on imported autos and auto parts was still slated to take effect.

Zandi estimated the overall effect is still a 20% U.S. tariff on imported goods.

“But again, let’s see,” he said.