Following a significant winter storm that recently covered parts of the Northeast in snow and disrupted post-holiday travel during one of the year’s busiest weekends, another swift system is set to sweep through. This new weather front will bring a mix of rain and snow, coupled with a blast of Arctic air, leading to below-average temperatures across much of the East Coast as the New Year begins.

In response to the severe weather, officials in both New York and New Jersey have declared a State of Emergency. The impact has been felt in the travel sector, with thousands of flights delayed or canceled in the region as of Friday.

The focus now shifts to a sprawling cold front that poses a threat to millions. This system could unleash a dangerous combination of severe storms, flash flooding, and potentially significant lake-effect snow in its aftermath.

Starting Sunday, a low-pressure zone is expected to move through the Upper Midwest, bringing with it a mix of rain, snow, and strong winds.

As the system progresses eastward by Sunday, it will introduce a cold air mass, setting the stage for snowfall from Minneapolis to Michigan.

While general snow totals will range from 5 to 8 inches, the arrival of colder air and shifting winds across the northern Great Lakes could trigger lake-effect snow totals of up to 18 inches in localized areas, according to the FOX Forecast Center. 

Further south, along Lakes Michigan and Erie, the combination of moisture and rapid snowmelt closer to the low-pressure center creates a brewing flash flooding risk. 

While rainfall totals will generally average 1 to 2 inches, the existing snowpack and warm temperatures ahead of the front increase the flood potential for cities from Chicago to Cleveland and Buffalo.

Ahead of the front, rain will sweep across the eastern Great Lakes. As the front extends south into the Tennessee Valley, some stronger storms, potentially severe, may develop. 

A Level 1 of 5 severe storm threat exists from northern Indiana south into Missouri, including Indianapolis, St. Louis, Louisville and Nashville.

The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, though given the present wind shear, a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

INTO THE NORTHEAST

As the front pushes east Sunday evening, rain will spread across the Northeast, clearing out snow that remains in affected areas. Most areas will remain above freezing, limiting snow chances for the majority of the region.

Icing appears likely where cold air remains trapped, which will create travel hazards across New England, particularly in high-elevation areas.

Winter Weather Alerts have been issued for most of New England for the potential of ice up to 0.10″.

Locations along the I-95 corridor will remain warm enough for the system to fall entirely as rain.

A quick burst of high, gusty winds is likely from the Midwest to the Northeast. Power outages are also possible. 

A rush of much colder air will arrive as winds pivot out of the northwest, triggering significant lake-effect snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Portions of Western and Upstate New York are expected to see plowable snow through Tuesday, with totals potentially exceeding one foot.