Just over 11 weeks ago, Prince Harry, Meghan and their children, Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet, returned to the UK.
The move came as a surprise. Megxit and the family’s new life in California had long been established, while a series of public disputes had left relations with the Royal Family severely strained.
Harry had met his father, King Charles, for tea at Highgrove the previous month. Even so, many observers found it difficult to believe that he planned to spend the next few years in Britain, that his children would attend a British school or that he and Meghan were searching for a permanent home in the Cotswolds.
That, however, was the message being conveyed by their friends and public relations team.
The children are now nearing the end of their first term at a British private school. Harry and Meghan have also undertaken a series of quasi-royal engagements, appearing together in Nottingham before travelling to Brussels this week.
They have yet to secure a permanent UK residence. For now, the family is staying in a second property on the same estate along the Northamptonshire-Oxfordshire border, owned by a wealthy friend. They moved when a recently renovated house on the estate became available.
Sussex sources this week started briefing the surprising news that they will be spending the festive season right here in Britain, in the Cotswolds
The Duchess of Sussex with her mother Doria, who will travel to Britain to spend Christmas with the Sussexes
The arrangement is described as temporary, although the couple are said to be very happy there. Their search for a house is reportedly under way, but they remain some distance from owning a home of their own in Britain.
That brings the focus to Christmas.
According to Sussex sources, the couple have abandoned their original plan to return to their Montecito mansion for the festive period, where they had expected to spend time with American friends and Meghan’s mother, Doria.
Instead, they will remain in Britain, spending Christmas in the Cotswolds, with Doria travelling to join them.
“Harry says he is really looking forward to a cold Christmas,” one loyal friend told me this week.
But what prompted the change? It seems this Christmas will be “cold” in more than one sense.
Harry and Meghan abandoned their initial plans to return to their mansion in Montecito for Christmas with their American friends
The Sussexes will not attend the Christmas Day walk to the church of St Mary Magdalene (Pictured: King Charles and Queen Camilla attending the Christmas service last year)
The Sussexes have not been invited to join the rest of the Royal Family at Sandringham, and both Sussex and Palace sources confirm that they are aware of the situation. “Harry is relaxed about it. He knows he is not invited,” says one friend.
Buckingham Palace has declined to comment on “private family arrangements”. However, a source familiar with the matter says that, despite hopes the situation might improve, relations remain “complex”. The couple will not be welcomed back into the family gathering this December.
“There are obvious reasons why that will not happen,” says one source, adding that “some people have strong feelings”. The comments appear to refer to the deeply strained relationship between Harry and Prince William after the publication of Harry’s memoir, Spare, in which he described William as his “arch nemesis”, accused William and Catherine of being unwelcoming towards Meghan and detailed heated arguments, including a physical confrontation with his brother.
As a result, Harry and Meghan will not be joining the family for Christmas lunch or taking part in the traditional Christmas Day walk to St Mary Magdalene Church.
The Sussexes are also absent from another family occasion. King Charles turns 78 today and is expected to mark the day with a small private gathering at Clarence House, as he has done in previous years.
His younger son and Harry’s family will not be attending. Once again, I am told that Harry is aware of the decision and is not troubled by it.
Harry, who showed up at a Remembrance Day service in Brackley in Northamptonshire, and his family will not be invited to the small family gathering at Clarence House as the King turns 78
The only comment Palace sources will offer is that “the King loves all his children”.
Yet the situation remains striking. Harry returned to Britain almost three months ago with the stated intention of rebuilding family relationships and raising his children as British, connected to their relatives and royal heritage.
So far, however, the signs suggest that those efforts have been met with a courteous but decisive refusal. In blunt terms, Harry and his young family appear to be being kept at arm’s length.
Despite being back in the UK, Harry is said by several sources still not to have met his father face to face. In terms of contact with the King, the family might as well still be living in California.
The approach resembles what is sometimes described as “grey rocking” — a deliberate decision by the Palace to avoid engaging with Sussex controversies.
The family had been back in Britain for four weeks when guidance from the Lord Chamberlain’s office stated that they were “akin to private citizens” and should be treated accordingly during public engagements.
The timing and wording appeared designed to limit the statement’s impact. It was framed as a simple restatement of the terms agreed under Megxit.
Within hours, the Sussexes issued a pointed response, insisting that they consider themselves “public figures”. Their friends also complained that they had not been given enough time to respond and said the couple had been “surprised” by the announcement.
That was followed by renewed complaints about their security arrangements, which remain under review despite lawsuits and briefings from the Sussex camp. Throughout the latest round of claims and counterclaims, the Palace has maintained its silence.
Some observers believe the past few days have demonstrated the value of that strategy.
Harry attended a Remembrance Day service in Brackley, Northamptonshire, wearing his military medals. Images from the supposedly private appearance were distributed to newspapers, but the event did not overshadow the main ceremonies at the Cenotaph.
“He is perfectly entitled to mark Remembrance Day in whatever way he chooses,” says one source. “Nobody is going to tell a veteran how he can or cannot do that.”
It is easy to see why some commentators have begun describing Harry as irrelevant to the royal story.
The Sussexes’ independence allows them to choose their own activities, but it also gives the Palace greater freedom to disregard them.
Their friends, naturally, offer a more favourable interpretation.
“Harry understands the narrative. He was careful not to overshadow the service or create a fuss. He stood at the back with a couple of other men. He knows how these things appear,” one friend said.
“He could have attended any second-tier Remembrance service, but he chose not to do that.
“This strategy comes very much from Harry himself. He understands what ordinary people think and is directing the approach.”
The question is whether the Palace can maintain this position indefinitely.
When Harry and Meghan first returned, they kept a notably low profile. A different pattern now appears to be taking shape, with the couple making separate or joint appearances at charitable events — some of which also create opportunities for commercial activity.
On Tuesday, they attended an event at the European Parliament in Brussels on behalf of the Lost Screen Partnership, which unveiled a memorial to children harmed by online media.
Meghan had been expected to speak but withdrew. Sources said she was not “emotionally strong enough” to deliver an address while her father, Thomas Markle, is in prison awaiting trial on charges involving possession of an image of child sexual abuse.
Harry used his speech to support proposed EU legislation aimed at strengthening protections for children online. Were he still a working royal, taking a position connected to legislation would be considered inappropriate because the Royal Family is expected to remain politically neutral. As a non-working royal, however, he is not subject to the same level of institutional oversight.
Meghan wore a high-end double-breasted black coat to the engagement and later listed it for sale on the OneOff website for $695. She is an investor in the company and is among the influencers who earn a share when clothing they have worn is sold.
It is not the first time she has faced criticism over commercial activity linked to a quasi-royal appearance.
Earlier this year, she listed on the same website the outfit she wore while visiting survivors of the Bondi Beach terror attack.
The prospect of clothing sales linked to the launch of a children’s memorial may prompt further questions among the couple’s advisers.
I understand that Clara and Nick Loughran are now providing advice. Both are former royal aides with links to Harry stretching back more than a decade. They worked with him at Buckingham Palace before he met Meghan and are said to be helping the couple manage public appearances and consider how those engagements are perceived.
Sussex friends insist that the couple will not seek to profit from their UK events, but say they may pursue commercial opportunities when appearing elsewhere — in this case, just a short journey away in Belgium.
Whether that is a sustainable approach remains unclear. So too is the future of Meghan’s lifestyle brand, As Ever, which is strongly associated with the California sunshine.
Despite the questions, the couple’s friends maintain that family life is progressing well.
“They had always planned to return to California for Christmas, but the children are doing so well now that I am not sure they will,” one friend says. “They are really enjoying their schools and are looking forward to Christmas in the UK.”
“In some ways, it would have been easier not to be here, because then there would be no speculation about whether they will attend a church service, whether this will become a miniature royal Christmas or whether Harry will simply keep his head down and disappear.
“Where they are staying, they do not have to be seen. They can spend quiet time with the children and close friends.
“Everything is calm. They are looking forward to a private family Christmas. Harry will wish his father, William and the rest of the family a happy Christmas by phone or video call.
“It will be a very ordinary family Christmas. There is no estrangement. They are two brothers spending the holiday in different ways.
“Harry is entirely comfortable not being required to attend Sandringham. He is content to spend the time with his own family.”
It is one thing to insist there is “no estrangement”. But when relatives live in the same country and do not meet, the situation inevitably looks like one.
Harry’s friend says: “They are all extremely busy. I would expect him to see his father privately before Christmas. He is comfortable with that; he has had a great deal going on. He returned in the third week of August and his diary has been full ever since.”
Palace sources say it is possible — even likely — that father and son will meet at some point between now and Christmas.
That would still fall short of the arrangement some of Harry’s more optimistic friends once imagined: regular private meetings and “tea with Pa” each month.
For now, observers can only wait to see whether the chill between Harry and his family eventually lifts.