Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is predicting Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will be reelected leader of the House on the first ballot.

“Mike Johnson will be elected Speaker today. On the first vote,” Gaetz, who famously led the historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), wrote on X. “People might like or dislike that. I’m just reporting the news.”

Johnson has a narrow margin for error in Friday’s vote.

Assuming all members are present and voting for a candidate, Johnson can afford to lose only one GOP vote and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is widely seen as an immovable “no.”

Roughly a dozen other conservative Republicans are undecided.

The election of the Speaker must be completed before the House can take any other actions, including swearing in its members, adopting a rules package and, eventually, certifying President-elect Trump’s victory Monday.

On the other side of the Capitol, senators anticipate far less drama but will also see new members sworn in on the first day of the new Congress.

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