Israel’s military strikes in Syria this week — launched in response to atrocities against the Druze minority — represent a strategic turning point in a deeper power struggle that now entangles Iran, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., according to regional analysts.

Just days ago, speculation swirled about a potential normalization agreement between Israel and Syria — a breakthrough quietly brokered by U.S. officials, but that fragile prospect has been swiftly overtaken by violence, as Israeli airstrikes this week struck near Damascus.

A ceasefire agreement between Druze factions and the Syrian government, announced July 16, was meant to calm days of deadly clashes, but it remains tenuous and largely unenforced, with sporadic fighting continuing and tensions running high.

Iran: Watching, waiting, and ready to return

Even as Israel dismantled key parts of Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria, Tehran remains a long-term threat. Taleblu said Iran is now lying in wait — ready to exploit missteps by others.

“This is a regime that capitalizes on the mistakes of others,” he said. “They don’t need to win outright — they just need everyone else to lose.”

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and other officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in this handout released on May 14, 2025.  (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

Tehran is betting that the region’s rival powers — Turkey, Israel, the U.S. and the Gulf — will overplay their hands, allowing Iran to reenter through proxies, sectarian militias, or diplomatic manipulation.

The United States: Pulled back in

Though President Trump recently said Syria’s internal affairs are “not our war,” his administration’s tone has shifted. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for de-escalation, and regional partners are urging a clearer U.S. role.

“Real success will come from creating contingencies,” Taleblu said. “What are the costs if Syria collapses? What if Turkey overreaches, or Israel overextends? What if Iran comes back? The states that prepare for these questions.”