Amid growing friction between Washington and the Maduro government, analysts shared with Fox News Digital that while Venezuela’s military might appear robust on paper, it is significantly weakened by longstanding corruption, deterioration, and political manipulation. They assert that although Venezuela would struggle to fend off a determined U.S. assault, any comprehensive military operation would be more intricate than the White House portrays.

Isaias Medina, a former Venezuelan diplomat and international lawyer who criticized his government at the International Criminal Court, characterized Venezuela as a state overrun by narcotrafficking rings.

“Today, Venezuela resembles a fortress built on unstable ground, enveloped by a criminal regime,” Medina remarked, suggesting that any theoretical U.S. intervention would resemble “removing a terrorist cartel that has taken residence next door rather than invading a nation.”

Medina cautioned that Venezuela’s densely packed civilian population, which also suffers under the regime, requires utmost prudence. “The only acceptable strategy is a strong preference for restraint and extended operation timelines, avoiding targets that cannot be precisely hit,” he advised.

Military personnel participate in a parade with vehicles during Venezuela’s Independence Day festivities in Caracas on July 5, 2023. (Photo by Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

He said the military’s capabilities look better on paper than reality, with equipment rusting from lack of maintenance and thousands of politically appointed generals disconnected from an estimated 100,000 lower-ranking troops who may abandon their posts under pressure.

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s most relevant threat lies in its air-naval systems — and even those could be quickly eliminated.

“You have to break this up,” he said. “There’s an air-naval part, which is most likely what could impact our strike operations,” including fighter jets, limited naval vessels and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.

Soldiers march during a military parade celebrating the 205th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)

But Montgomery said the U.S. could quickly neutralize them. “Reasonably speaking, in the first day or two of a campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces,” he said.

Any U.S. plan targeting cocaine production would begin with “simultaneous strikes on the airfields, the aircraft and the air defense weapon systems to ensure that they don’t respond to any U.S. attacks on other assets.”

Asked whether Venezuela could retaliate after such strikes, Montgomery replied: “Not against an air campaign. No.”

Members of the Bolivarian National Guard stand in formation along Lake Maracaibo amid rising tensions with the U.S., in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on Oct. 26, 2025. (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)

Montgomery stressed that while air defenses can be eliminated quickly, a ground operation would be a far different story. “They have a small professional military… 65 to 70,000 people, many of whom probably don’t want — they didn’t join the army to fight,” he said. The country also maintains a massive militia, whose motivation would depend on loyalty to Maduro.

But geography and scale make a land operation a nightmare scenario. “Venezuela is probably twice the geographic size of California, 35 to 40 million citizens,” Montgomery said. “This would be a terrifically challenging ground campaign, especially if it turned into a counterinsurgency.”

He added bluntly: “Today, I would not do this. I do not recommend it.”

A squad of Venezuelan Air Force aircraft overflies during the 2025 Venezuela industrial aviation expo in Maracay, Venezuela, on Nov. 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Montgomery does support an air campaign which he believes will be more efficient than the current naval tactics. He cited his experience commanding U.S. Navy counter-drug operations: “Every one of these 21 ships could have been pulled over by a mix of Navy and Coast Guard assets and helicopters.” But intelligence often proved unreliable.

Despite years of decay, Venezuela still possesses a large, uneven mix of military hardware. Analysts say it cannot stop a U.S. campaign but could complicate early phases.

Soldiers take part in a drill after President Nicolas Maduro deployed the military across communities nationwide to train citizens amid rising tensions with the United States, in Yagua, Venezuela, Sept. 20, 2025. (Juan Carlos Hernandez/Reuters)

Its inventory reportedly includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6–10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air defenses include the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M.

Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China continue to worry U.S. officials.

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said “numbers show only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime,” warning that for more than a decade “there has been no respect for the will of the population” as Caracas aligns with “anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region.”