(The Hill) – In a closely watched special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, Republican contender Matt Van Epps has emerged victorious over Democrat Aftyn Behn, as projected by Decision Desk HQ. This race was regarded as a pivotal indicator of Democratic voter momentum leading up to the 2026 elections.

Van Epps, who previously served as the commissioner for Tennessee’s Department of General Services, triumphed over Behn, a state representative, to fill the void left by former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.). Green vacated his position earlier this year to pursue opportunities in the private sector.

Although the Republican stronghold was expected to remain unchanged, especially considering both President Trump and former Rep. Green secured the district by over 20 points in 2024, Democrats approached the special election with renewed hope following unexpectedly strong performances in last month’s elections.

Polls leading up to the election hinted at a competitive race. A survey conducted by Emerson College Polling, in collaboration with The Hill, last month indicated Van Epps held a narrow 2-point lead over Behn.

Reflecting the competitive nature of the contest, significant outside funding flowed into the district from both parties. Despite Republicans receiving more external financial backing, Behn managed to outpace Van Epps in fundraising efforts between October 1 and November 12, as noted by Decision Desk HQ’s chief elections analyst, Geoffrey Skelley.

The race also drew big names from both sides, including former Vice President Harris, the chairs of both national parties, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and President Trump, who phoned into a rally for Van Epps a day before the election.

Democrats needed to rely heavily on turnout from Davidson County, where Nashville is located, in order to keep the race tight. Early voting had shown that the county made up about a quarter of the early vote, underscoring the tough road ahead for the party, which would have needed at least 50 percent of their vote share to come from the county.

Despite the loss, Democrats have reasons to feel optimistic heading into next year: Besides the party’s overperformance last month in both Virginia and New Jersey, they’re also encouraged by Trump’s approval rating, which has dipped to 42 percent. Democrats have also been able to make some gains in the redistricting war, which has seen red and blue states alike look to quickly redraw their maps.

Republicans have their own reasons to feel encouraged. In spite of a challenging midterm environment next year, the GOP is still eyeing several states where it could redraw maps. And if the Supreme Court makes an early enough ruling that guts the Voting Rights Act, that could allow a slew of southern states to redraw their maps before 2026 as well.