In the nation’s capital, the Senate Democrats once again blocked a temporary funding measure on Thursday, marking the 10th rejection of a proposal aimed at ending the government shutdown. Their firm stance is rooted in a demand that Congress prioritize discussions on health care benefits.

Thursday morning’s vote concluded with a 51-45 tally, falling short of the 60 votes required to move past the Senate’s filibuster rules. This repeated voting pattern on the funding bill has become a regular occurrence, highlighting the deep divisions and the stubborn deadlock gripping Capitol Hill.

As the only item dominating the Senate floor agenda, the funding bill has overshadowed other legislative activities, with House Republicans having vacated Washington. The impasse has dragged on for over two weeks, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees, many of whom are furloughed or working without pay, effectively bringing Congress to a standstill.

“Every day that this continues, more Americans are seeing their paychecks shrink,” remarked Senate Majority Leader John Thune. He also pointed out the ripple effects, such as numerous flight delays nationwide, as a result of the shutdown.

Senator Thune, representing South Dakota, has persistently urged Democrats to reconsider their strategy of opposing the stopgap funding bill, albeit with little success. Despite some ongoing bipartisan discussions aimed at finding a compromise on health care, tangible progress remains elusive. Thune has proposed a future vote on extending subsidies for health plans under the Affordable Care Act, though he refrained from promising any specific outcomes.

Democrats say they won’t budge until they get a guarantee on extending the tax credits for the health plans. They warn that millions of Americans who buy their own health insurance – such as small business owners, farmers and contractors – will see large increases when premium prices go out in the coming weeks. Looking ahead to a Nov. 1 deadline in most states, they think voters will demand that Republicans enter into serious negotiations.

“The ACA crisis is looming over everyone’s head, and yet Republicans seem ready to let people’s premiums spike,” said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer in a floor speech.

Still, Thune was also trying a different tack Thursday with a vote to proceed to appropriations bills – a move that could grease the Senate’s gears into some action or just deepen the divide between the two parties.

A deadline for subsidies on health plans

Democrats have rallied around their priorities on health care as they hold out against voting for a Republican bill that would reopen the government. Yet they also warn that the time to strike a deal to prevent large increases for many health plans is drawing short.

When they controlled Congress during the pandemic, Democrats boosted subsidies for Affordable Care Act health plans. It pushed enrollment under President Barack Obama’s signature health care law to new levels and drove the rate of uninsured people to a historic low. Nearly 24 million people currently get their health insurance from subsidized marketplaces, according to health care research nonprofit KFF.

Democrats – and some Republicans – are worried that many of those people will forgo insurance if the price rises dramatically. While the tax credits don’t expire until next year, health insurers will soon send out notices of the price increases. In most states, they go out Nov. 1.

Sen. Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said she has heard from “families who are absolutely panicking about their premiums that are doubling.”

“They are small business owners who are having to think about abandoning the job they love to get employer-sponsored health care elsewhere or just forgoing coverage altogether,” she added.

Murray also said that if many people decide to leave their health plan, it could have an effect across medical insurance because the pool of people under health plans will shrink. That could result in higher prices across the board, she said.

Some Republicans have acknowledged that the expiration of the tax credits could be a problem and floated potential compromises to address it, but there is hardly a consensus among the GOP.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., this week called the COVID-era subsidies a “boondoggle,” adding that “when you subsidize the health care system and you pay insurance companies more, the prices increase.”

President Donald Trump has said he would “like to see a deal done for great health care,” but has not meaningfully weighed into the debate. And Thune has insisted that Democrats first vote to reopen the government before entering any negotiations on health care.

If Congress were to engage in negotiations on significant changes to health care, it would likely take weeks, if not longer, to work out a compromise.

Votes on appropriations bills

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are setting up a vote Thursday to proceed to a bill to fund the Defense Department and several other areas of government. This would turn the Senate to Thune’s priority of working through spending bills and potentially pave the way to paying salaries for troops, though the House would eventually need to come back to Washington to vote for a final bill negotiated between the two chambers.

It could also put a crack in Democrats’ resolve. Thune said Thursday, “If they want to stop the defense bill, I don’t think it’s very good optics for them.”

It wasn’t clear whether Democrats would give the support needed to advance the bills. They discussed the idea at their luncheon Wednesday and emerged saying they wanted to review the Republican proposal and make sure it included appropriations that are priorities for them.

While the votes will not bring the Senate any closer to an immediate fix for the government shutdown, it could at least turn their attention to issues where there is some bipartisan agreement.

Still, there was a growing sense on Capitol Hill that an end to the stasis is nowhere in sight.

“So many of you have asked all of us, how will it end?” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, “We have no idea.”