Today, the Senate is poised to take a vote on a measure passed by the House to reopen the government. The plan is to amend this legislation by adding three full-year appropriations measures, a strategy formed through recent bipartisan discussions aimed at resolving the government shutdown. However, the Republican proposal faces obstacles and may struggle to secure sufficient Democratic support to progress on Friday.

Earlier this week, moderates involved in bipartisan negotiations were hopeful about reaching a consensus, which included a planned vote on extending health insurance tax credits. Yet, on Thursday, talks seemed to hit a snag as Democrats held closed-door caucus meetings.

While several moderates are keen on finding a resolution to end the government closure, others feel empowered by the party’s recent electoral wins and are pushing to prolong the shutdown battle to meet their healthcare objectives. A setback for Democrats came when House Speaker Mike Johnson refrained from committing to a Thursday vote on extending health insurance tax credits, diminishing enthusiasm for the proposal among some Democrats.

The anticipated Friday vote, yet to be scheduled, will need 60 votes to advance, requiring at least five more Democrats to join Republicans. Three senators have consistently crossed party lines to support the House measure. The GOP is banking on the moderate Democrats involved in the negotiations to vote to advance the bill, with the understanding that it will be amended to incorporate longer-term funding.

At the Capitol, Thune shared his outlook on the expected developments for Friday.

While some moderates have been eager to find a solution to reopen the government, others in the caucus appear emboldened by the party’s sweep in key races in Tuesday’s elections, pushing to hold out longer in the shutdown fight in an effort to achieve their health care demands. And House Speaker Mike Johnson’s refusal to commit Thursday to bringing up a vote on extending health insurance tax credits dealt a blow to Democrats who appeared to be warming to the proposal. 

The planned vote on Friday, which is not yet scheduled, would require 60 votes to advance, meaning Republicans need at least five more Democrats to cross the aisle. Three senators have repeatedly broken with their party to vote in favor of advancing the House-passed measure. Republicans are hoping the moderate Democrats who have been in the negotiations all week will vote to at least advance the bill, with the expectation that it will be amended and include some longer-term funding.

At the Capitol, Thune commented on his expectations for Friday.

“My hopes and expectations are always that we’re going to have enough Democrats to actually proceed, but I don’t know, we’ll see,” the South Dakota Republican said. “They seem to be walking back or slow-walking this, and it’s what they asked for.”