Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is expected to forgo running for a third term in the Senate, a GOP operative confirmed to The Hill leaving an open seat that could become hotly contested next year. 

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), a former reporter-turned-lawmaker who’s served in Congress since 2021, is likely best positioned to replace her, the GOP operative said.  

CBS News was the first to report that Ernst would not be running for reelection, with an announcement expected on Thursday. The Hill has reached out to Ernst’s team for comment. 

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report had rated her seat as “likely Republican” before news of her expected retirement broke. Despite an expensive and challenging reelection bid in 2020, she beat her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by over six points.  

Several Democrats are vying for Ernst’s seat, including Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce executive director Nathan Sage, state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls.  

Ernst, a military veteran and sexual assault survivor, was a pivotal vote earlier this year in helping confirm Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who faced allegations of excessive drinking and sexual assault. Hegseth said that an incident in 2017, in which the future Defense secretary was accused of sexual assault, was consensual. He was not charged with any wrongdoing.

The Iowa Republican also faced some criticism during a town hall meeting in May in which she said “Well, we’re all going to die,” after an attendee said people would “die” amid a conversation around cuts to social safety programs.

Ernst unapologetically doubled down on her comments, saying in a video later, “I made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that, yes, we are all going to perish from this earth. So I apologize, and I’m really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well.” 

Ernst is no stranger to winning tough races. Besides her 2020 reelection bid, she won a contested primary for a first term in 2014, which included U.S. ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker. One of her best known-ads during that election cycle was one in which she said “Washington’s full of big spenders. Let’s make ‘em squeal.”