Spain Considers Legalizing Over a Million Undocumented Migrants

Spain may potentially grant legal status to over a million undocumented migrants, a figure that is twice what was initially anticipated under the socialist government’s plan, according to warnings from police authorities.

A report by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF) indicates that between 750,000 and one million undocumented migrants currently residing in Spain might seek to obtain legal status.

The report further estimates that an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers could also apply for legal status. This could push the total number of applicants to between one million and 1.35 million, as reported by the El Confidencial news site.

These projections significantly surpass the public estimate of around 500,000 beneficiaries, a figure previously mentioned by Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.

The new policy allows undocumented migrants to qualify for an accelerated residence permit if they can demonstrate they have lived in Spain since before December 31, 2025, and have maintained a presence in the country for at least five months without a criminal record.

The permit is valid for a year – or five for children – and can subsequently be extended.

After ten years, migrants could become citizens of Spain, or sooner if they originate from Latin American countries or are refugees.

The CNIF document suggests most would succeed with their application, and warns the programme could kickstart broader migratory effects, citing an ‘international perception of Spain as more permissive with irregular immigration’.

People queue outside Pakistan’s consulate in Barcelona to apply for criminal record certificates, a document required for the migrant regularisation programme

With Spain facing an ageing population and low birth rate, Sanchez says immigrants help sustain the workforce and maintain the pension system

According to a police report, prepared by the National Centre for Immigration and Borders, between 750,000 and one million illegal migrants living in Spain would apply for legal status

Police analysts predict ‘secondary movements’ of between 200,000 and 250,000 undocumented migrants per year from other Schengen-area countries into Spain over the medium to long term.

The experts also predict a ‘shift of maritime migration routes’ from the central and eastern Mediterranean toward Spain, which could increase sea arrivals by 6,000 to 12,000 annually.

Unlike numerous member states, including Germany, Italy and Poland, Spain has not reinstated internal Schengen border measures, the document, dated January 29, notes.

Since the return to democracy in 1975, Spain has carried out several extraordinary schemes to grant migrants legal status.

Between 1986 and 2005, legal status was granted to 1.2 million people in nine such efforts, according to the Migration Policy Institute Europe.

As birth rates decline, immigration has played a crucial role in Spain’s economic growth.

According to a Funcas study, foreign-born workers were responsible for 4.2 percentage points of Spain’s 8.9 per cent GDP growth between 2022 and 2025, while the foreign-born working-age population grew by 1.9 million.

The Socialist government’s move sharply diverges from the wave of tougher immigration policies occurring in Europe and the United States. 

The main opposition conservative Popular Party (PP) and far-right Vox have lashed out at the government, saying the regularisation will encourage more illegal immigration

Because the coalition lacks a majority in parliament, the initiative is scheduled to be approved by royal decree

In the past three years, Spain’s population increased by 1.5 million to 48.9 million, with almost all the increase due to immigration 

Because the coalition lacks a majority in parliament, the initiative is scheduled to be approved by royal decree.

Sánchez defended the scheme following criticism from domestic opponents and tech billionaire Elon Musk, arguing that Spain is choosing the path of ‘dignity, community and justice’.

In a video posted on social media in January, the prime minister addressed critics who ‘say we’ve gone too far’, asserting: ‘When did recognising rights become something radical? When did empathy become something exceptional?’

But Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative opposition Popular Party (PP), warned the scheme would ‘increase the pull effect and overwhelm our public services’ and would exacerbate the housing crisis. 

‘This plan comes at a time when rents and home prices are breaking records and working-class families are being squeezed out of cities,’ Feijóo said. 

‘Adding hundreds of thousands more people to a labour market already straining under a serious housing crisis will compound those problems, not solve them.’

‘We are reinforcing a migratory model based on human rights, integration, co-existence and which is compatible with economic growth and social cohesion,’ migration minister Elma Saiz said, adding that economists had attributed Spain’s declining unemployment and growth in part to its openness to migrants.

‘Providing rights is the answer to racism,’ said Irene Montero, from the far-left Podemos party. 

Hundreds of Pakistani nationals were seen queueing outside the country’s consulate in Barcelona’s Eixample district last month, to apply for certificates showing they did not hold criminal records.

In the past three years, Spain’s population rose by 1.5 million to 48.9 million, with almost all the increase due to immigration.

Latin Americans make up 70 per cent of recent arrivals.

Sanchez argues immigrants are key to Spain’s economy, which expanded 2.8 percent last year – more than twice the average expected in the entire eurozone. 

The country has been outperforming other EU nations in recent years, with unemployment – a longstanding issue in the Spanish economy – dipping below 10 per cent for the first time since 2008. 

But with about 90 per cent of new jobs going to immigrants, income per person has barely grown in Spain.

Moreover, each year sees 140,000 new households, but only about 80,000 new homes built. 

A lack of affordable housing has become a central grievance among voters, contributing to social tension.

Critics of the new programme argue that without simultaneous housing policy reforms, legalising large numbers of migrants increases competition for scarce accommodation, particularly in urban centres such as Barcelona and Madrid. 

Santiago Abascal, the leader of the populist hard-right party Vox, accused the Socialist-led coalition of accelerating what he called an ‘invasion’.

Pepa Millán, spokeswoman for Vox, said the plan ‘attacks our identity’, pledging that the party would appeal before the Supreme Court in an attempt to block it.

The political row escalated after Musk posted a link on X – which he owns – to a post by a man named Ian Miles Cheong who called the plan ‘electoral engineering’, along with the comment: ‘Wow.’

‘Spain just legalized 500,000 illegal aliens to “defeat the far-right”,’ Cheong wrote in the post which has had over 16 million views.

‘The logic is simple: legalise half a million people, fast-track them to citizenship (which takes as little as two years for many), and you’ve effectively imported a massive, loyal voting bloc that’s indebted to the left,’ he continued.

Sanchez hit back at Musk, responding to the tech mogul’s post on X with the message: ‘Mars can wait. Humanity can’t.’

Musk’s aerospace company SpaceX is developing the mammoth Starship – the world’s largest and most powerful rocket – as part of his vision to take humans to Mars.

With Spain facing an ageing population and low birth rate, Sanchez says immigrants help sustain the workforce and maintain the pension system.

Immigrants represent ‘wealth, development and prosperity’ for Spain, he said, pointing to their contribution to the country’s social security system. 

But public disquiet about immigration has grown in the country, with polls indicating immigration is now among voters’ top concerns, together with housing and unemployment.

Analysts have sounded the alarm that without complementary policies addressing housing supply and integration, the scheme could harden public sentiment further, giving momentum to opposition parties’ hardline anti-immigration stances.