The latest storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated to take shape within the coming week.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced that there is a 50 percent likelihood of Invest 98L evolving into a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours. This probability climbs to 80 percent over the upcoming week.

Tropical depressions feature sustained winds of 38 mph or lower, whereas tropical storms exhibit wind speeds between 39 and 73 mph. Should this system intensify, it will be named Melissa.

Weather experts indicate that predictive models suggest the storm could either quickly intensify and impact Hispaniola or develop at a slower pace, targeting Nicaragua or Honduras.

In one extreme forecast, there’s a possibility that the storm could edge closer to South Florida, potentially affecting the Keys.

Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at Florida’s WINK News, warned on X: ‘Florida is not in the clear yet.

Remember, models are analyzing something that hasn’t even formed! A possible blocker could be a cold front sweeping by around Halloween, but the timing will be a big factor.’

The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slow down over the next few days.

Meteorologists said three scenarios could play out once the system develops into Storm Melissa

The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slow down over the next few days

‘Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days,’ the NHC said. 

The agency added that regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.

The ABC Islands are the three westernmost islands of the Leeward Antilles in the Caribbean Sea, including Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao.  

Andy Hazelton, associate Scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, shared the three scenarios on X over the weekend: ‘I’m personally leaning more towards Scenarios 2 or 3, with slower development and a track either towards Central America or into the NW Caribbean, but certainly Scenario 1 is on the table if it gets organized and feels the weakness to the north.

‘Folks all through the Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba should be prepared for potential impacts from this system if it develops.’

Scenario one shows the storm making a quick northeastern turn across Hispaniola, with a path mostly affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The second suggests the system stays weak and develops deeper in the Caribbean, moving closer to  Nicaragua or Honduras.

The third scenario shows the storm taking longer to form, but developing into a powerful hurricane in the northwest Caribbean. 

The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slow down over the next few days

Florida Storm Chasers are monitoring the system in the Atlantic Basin, also saying models are showing a potential Florida approach

This track could threaten Cuba, the Bahamas, and potentially extreme South Florida and the Keys. 

Florida Storm Chasers posted on X: ‘The latest 00z EURO Ensembles are still showing Scenario 3 happening as #98L is developing quickly, and would bring it dangerously close to Florida!’

The ’00z EURO Ensembles’ is a set of weather forecasts from the European model run at midnight UTC, showing multiple possible outcomes to capture uncertainty in the forecast. 

Dylan Federico, a Florida meteorologist for WSVN, posted on X: ‘Invest #98L is on its way to becoming a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean Sea with increasing spin and storms on satellite. 

‘I expect this to be named Melissa later this week and our friends in the Caribbean need to review their hurricane action plan.’