Sweden Election: Migration, Crime and Economy Dominate High-Stakes Vote

Sweden votes Sunday in a closely watched general election, with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right bloc narrowly trailing the center-left Social Democrats led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. Mass migration, gang crime and economic pressures have emerged as the dominant concerns for voters.

“Years of gang violence, Islamist extremism, persistent unemployment and pressure on public services have intensified the debate over whether integration has kept pace with immigration,” foreign policy expert and author Daniel Schatz told News Media.

After Germany’s AfD won a state election last week, Sweden’s hard-right Sweden Democrats could be poised to enter government if Kristersson’s side prevails again. The Associated Press reported that the anti-immigration party has moved closer to the political mainstream and could receive cabinet positions. Until now, it has backed Kristersson’s government without formally joining it.

The Associated Press reported that the Sweden Democrats were founded by activists from far-right extremist movements, including neo-Nazis. Under leader Jimmie Åkesson, however, the party has softened its rhetoric and expelled racist members. Åkesson, who has led the party since 2005, is widely credited with transforming it from a marginal force into a major player in Swedish politics.

Once held up as a model Western welfare state, Sweden has faced mounting economic pressure as governments on both the left and right have been compelled to overhaul parts of the country’s social welfare system.

Social benefits remain broad, but Sweden’s welfare model has evolved amid rising crime and continued public expectations for extensive state support.

“Sweden went from being described as a ‘humanitarian superpower’ to a ‘humanitarian basket case.’ Discontent with migration policies extends to both foreign-born and native-born residents. Shootings have declined sharply, but fewer shootings do not mean the integration problems are solved,” added Schatz, who is Swedish.

Prime Minister Kristersson’s government took power in 2022, as the nation was experiencing a dramatic rise in gun-related violence, with the country witnessing 391 shootings resulting in 62 deaths, according to The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, a government agency under the Ministry of Justice.

The homicide rate in Sweden has been on the rise since 2013, when gun homicides contributed to a general increase in Sweden’s total homicide rate.

The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention notes that Sweden’s homicide rate ranks very high compared with other European countries, at approximately four deaths per million inhabitants per year.

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The average for Europe is approximately 1.6 deaths per million inhabitants.

The issue of immigration is another major issue that dovetails with voters’ concerns over crime and gun violence. Like much of Europe, Sweden experienced a wave of immigration in 2015 coming from those fleeing the Syrian civil war as well as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Sweden took in over 160,000 asylum seekers in 2015, or 12% of all those who sought protection in the EU, according to Sweden’s Migration Agency.

“After the 2015 influx of asylum seekers from Syria and other war-torn countries strained its reception system, Sweden began tightening its borders. The current government has taken that shift much further,” Schatz said.

Prime Minister Kristersson’s parliamentary ally, the right-wing Sweden Democrats, filled the void in the anti-immigration position in parliament.

Nicholas Aylott, professor of political science at Södertörn University in Stockholm, told News Media that the link between the increase in immigration and the rise in crime changed Swedish politics.

“Migration and law-and-order became much higher electoral priorities,” Aylott said.

“The Sweden Democrats based their pitch on them. The other parties, rather belatedly, adapted their positions. The Sweden Democrats had at first been completely ostracized by the other parties, but they were gradually accepted as a legitimate partner by three of the other parties of the right between 2018 and 2022,” he said.

As the anti-immigration backlash rose and the Sweden Democrats were more included in the policymaking process, Sweden cracked down on immigration and made it harder to seek asylum.

While asylum claims dropped and gun violence was dramatically reduced as well, with only 158 shootings and 44 fatalities to date, the government still might suffer a defeat at the hands of Andersson’s center-left coalition.