As catastrophic floods swept through Central Texas on July 4, several National Weather Service (NWS) offices had already been in crisis for months.

Amid sweeping federal workforce reductions led by the White House’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), crucial staff members were absent from key forecasting hubs throughout the state.

In San Angelo, multiple essential positions had been left unfilled at the NWS offices, causing the vacancy rate to double since January. The departure of the warning coordination meteorologist, who retired prematurely in April, was particularly impactful.

The Austin/San Antonio office, operating with a 22 percent staffing shortfall.

At the Houston/Galveston forecast office, all managerial roles had remained unfilled as of May, prompting concerns about its ability to effectively manage the current hurricane season.

These vacancies largely stem from DOGE’s push to shrink the federal workforce, slashing nearly 600 NWS employees nationwide in 2025 to reduce the annual federal budget. 

President Donald Trump rejected the idea of investigating whether NWS cuts had left key vacancies, and the White House said claims that NWS cuts had anything to do with the tragedy were ‘disgusting.’

Experts such as meteorologist John Morales said ‘it was a good forecast,’ noting he did not believe cuts at the NWS ‘had anything to do with the quality of the forecast [or] the advanced warning of the potential for flooding and damaging rains.’ 

As catastrophic floods swept through Central Texas on July 4, several National Weather Service (NWS) offices were already in crisis

The NWS issued a flood watch on Thursday at 1:18pm, estimating up to seven inches of rain on Friday morning in South Central Texas.

A flash flood warning was released at 1:14am on Friday, with a more extreme warning coming at 4:03am, urging people to immediately evacuate to high grounds as the situation became ‘extremely dangerous and life-threatening.

Rapid rainfall caused the Guadalupe River in Kerr Country to surge more than 30 feet above its normal level in under an hour. 

Erica Grow Cei, public affairs specialist/meteorologist at NOAA’s National Weather Service, told DailyMail.com: ‘Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo, TX had extra personnel on duty during the catastrophic flooding event in Texas’ Hill Country during the July 4 holiday weekend. 

‘Extra staff members from both offices, in addition to the West Gulf River Forecast Center, had extra personnel on the night of Thursday, July 3 into the day on Friday, July 4. All forecasts and warnings were issued in a timely manner. 

‘Additionally, these offices were able to provide decision support services to local partners, including those in the emergency management community.’

Meteorologist Matt Lanza told the Texas Tribune that the devastating event was not a result of a forecasting failure, but a breakdown in communication.

While Texas offices have so far avoided overnight closures, unlike counterparts in Kansas and California, the operational strain threatens the consistency of weather monitoring and emergency communication in a state frequently battered by floods, hurricanes and tornadoes. 

The 13 girls and two counselors were staying in Camp Mystic’s Bubble Inn cabin when the catastrophic floods hit on Friday morning. The bodies of 10 of the girls and counselor Chloe Childress, 18, have been found as of Monday morning, while counselor Katherine Ferruzzo and three campers remain missing

Campists’ belongings lie on the ground following flooding on the Guadalupe River

Overall, the flood zone stretched far inland, covering an estimated 2,000 square miles across south-central Texas, with Kerr County bearing the brunt

The San Angelo office, which issued warnings for parts of central Texas, is short four staff members from its usual staffing level of 23.

The meteorologist-in-charge position, the office’s top leadership position, is not permanently filled. 

The office is also without a senior hydrologist, which is critical for analyzing stream flow and flood response, this vacancy was noted as a significant gap during the floods

The NWS Austin/San Antonio office has been without a warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) and science officer.

A WCM is the key interface between the NWS and the public, media, and emergency management officials.

They are responsible for ensuring that NWS forecasts and warnings are understood and effectively communicated to the public, ultimately helping to mitigate the impact of severe weather events.

The NWS said ‘Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo, TX had extra personnel on duty during the catastrophic flooding event in Texas’ Hill Country during the July 4 holiday weekend.’ Pictured is a view inside of a cabin at Camp Mystic

In San Angelo, the NWS offices’ vacancy rate had doubled since January after losing several key personnel, including the warning coordination meteorologist, who retired early in April

Troy Kimmel, a longtime meteorologist and owner of Kimco Meteorological Services in Central Texas, stressed in May the importance importance of supporting organizations like the NWS rather than reducing their workforce.

‘Let me tell you this, and this is where we are now. This worries me,’ Kimmel said, highlighting the potential impact on weather forecasting services.

He noted that there might come a day when local meteorologists will face challenges in getting timely weather information due to reduced staffing.

Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07) and the Houston Democratic Delegation sent a letter to NOAA leadership in May, raising concerns over the staffing crisis at the NWS Houston/Galveston office and requesting plans for maintaining services amid severe cuts. 

The NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast Office will soon lose all three members of its leadership staff,’ the members wrote.

Rapid rainfall caused the Guadalupe River in Kerr Country to surge more than 30 feet above its normal level in under an hour

Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims said they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the flooding that killed at least 104

People watch the Guadalupe River flow over a dam in Kerrville. President Donald Trump rejected the idea of investigating whether NWS cuts had left key vacancies, saying that NWS cuts had anything to do with the tragedy were ‘disgusting’

‘The Meteorologist in Charge, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, and the Science and Operations Officer have all either already departed or announced their plans to leave following the announcement of significant staffing reductions at the direction of President Trump and Elon Musk. 

‘All three of the leadership roles in NWS regional forecast offices are vital to the overall operations of the office.’

The Houston/Galveston office had a 44 percent vacancy rate by May, with 11 of its 25 budgeted positions unfilled. 

This was among the highest vacancy rates of any NWS office nationwide. 

The death toll from catastrophic flooding in Texas surpassed 100 on Monday as search-and-rescue teams continued to wade into swollen rivers and use heavy equipment to untangle trees as part of the massive search for missing people.

Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims said they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the flooding.

The officials spoke only hours after the operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old all-girls Christian summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, announced that they lost 27 campers and counselors to the floodwaters. 

Kerr County officials said Monday 10 campers and one counselor have still not been found.

Searchers have found the bodies of 84 people, including 28 children, in the county home to Camp Mystic and several other summer camps, officials said.