Thursday’s MLB Player Predictions, Bets, and Odds

It’s time to fade Marcus Stroman once again. 

The Yankees’ veteran will look to reverse a hellish 2025 when the Rays visit the Bronx on Thursday. 

Stroman, who has been sidelined for two and a half months due to knee inflammation, has recorded a 6.09 ERA over eight appearances, ranking 14th highest among pitchers with at least eight starts in the league. 

Batters have no problem squaring him up. 

This season, Stroman has allowed a 49.1 percent hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph, placing him in the bottom four percent of the league in these metrics.

If the season ended today, Stroman would have the highest home run per nine innings of his career (1.59), allowing six in just 34 innings pitched. 

The hits keep coming, literally. 

Stroman has given up well above a hit per inning (10.06 per nine innings).

On Thursday, he will take the mound against Tampa Bay, one of the top contact-hitting teams in the league. Tampa Bay is currently tied for third place in baseball with a .255 batting average, as of Wednesday’s stats. 

The Rays have limited experience against Stroman, but have had success in previous plate appearances against him – Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls, and Nick Fortes are hitting a combined 11-for-27 (.407) with four extra-base hits against him. 

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In two starts against Tampa Bay last season, Stroman allowed just three earned runs, but that didn’t stop the Rays from hitting him around, getting 12 knocks against him in just 9 ⅔ innings. 

I’m betting on Stroman will have a hard time fooling Tampa’s hitters on Thursday.

The play: Marcus Stroman Over Hits Allowed

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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.