It’s a week-to-week league. 

Last week, we narrowly missed Drake Maye’s passing total by just 7 yards, which was set at over 320. However, we still ended the week on a positive note as we correctly predicted Davante Adams would score a touchdown at odds of +180.

The 2-2 showing profited us 0.71 units and brought us to 6-14 on the year, while still being down a bit 3.39 units. 

Accountability is everything in this business. Here are some Week 4 props: 

Bijan Robinson Under 17.5 rushing attempts (+100, BetMGM) 

It’s important to recognize that Robinson is undeniably a superstar. This season, though, he has only exceeded this total once. While facing Marcus Mariota and the Commanders might suggest a favorable outcome for the Falcons, I’d advise against assuming the game will be a one-sided affair.

In this matchup, it seems likely that Tyler Allgeier might take some of the carries that would otherwise go to Robinson. Robinson will continue serving as a primary receiver as usual. Notably, in the Falcons’ only victory, Allgeier played 33% of the snaps.

Darius Slayton Over 1.5 receptions (-111, DraftKings); Over 2.5 (+400, Fanatics); Over 3.5 (+750, DraftKings) 

The sportsbooks undervalue Slayton far too much. He hauled in four catches last week despite his total coming in at 1.5. Jaxson Dart starts for Big Blue, and I don’t see that as a negative for Slayton. 

“I’m doing everything I can to build chemistry with my teammates, especially Malik and Darius,” Dart told The Post’s Paul Schwartz on Thursday.” We’re putting in the work to make sure we’re on the same page.” 

Slayton played 97% and 99% of snaps for the Giants in Weeks 1 and 2, while slightly dropping off to 76% in Week 3. 

Dart views Slayton as a key cog in their offense, both as a veteran leader and a reliable player he can lean on. This was a spot that I hammered last week, and will revisit in Week 4. 

Matthew Golden Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM); Over 99.5 (+650, Fanatics) 

It is Golden’s week to put on a show against a putrid Cowboys defense. Golden plays mostly outside with insane 4.3 speed that will keep any defensive coordinator up at night. 

Well, Golden is getting a wild 28% target per route run rate against two-high coverage, which the Cowboys play 54.2% of the time (10th most, data via Derek Brown Fantasy Football Pros). He’s also the first read on 38.5% of those plays. 

Betting on the NFL?

The Cowboys also have allowed the most PPR fantasy points per target to perimeter receivers in the NFL. 

We’re targeting all of Golden’s Overs we can get our hands on. The rookie wideout should have had a 90-yard touchdown last week, but foolishly didn’t have his eyes downfield and instead opted to run out of bounds on the play. 

The Golden breakout is coming, and the Cowboys won’t be able to contain this playmaker.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.