A week-long “triple flood threat” is taking shape across multiple states, with potentially life-threatening rainfall forecast for more than 15 million people.
Flood watches were in effect across 10 states Tuesday morning as forecasters warned that moisture from Hurricane Polo, the remnants of Hurricane Odalys and a dip in the jet stream over the United States were combining to produce a sprawling storm system.
The most intense rainfall Tuesday is expected across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. However, the threat of flooding will continue to shift eastward through the remainder of the week.
Flood watches also cover Utah, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa. AccuWeather said more than 2 inches of rain could fall in parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin by Friday.
“Rainfall rates within the most intense bouts of rainfall [this week] can reach 2-3 inches per hour, which can create a life-threatening situation,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
AccuWeather’s latest forecast calls for as much as 8 inches of rain in parts of Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas this week.
In an extreme scenario, forecasters said isolated locations could receive up to 18 inches of rainfall.
The National Weather Service has issued flash flood warnings for parts of Arizona and New Mexico on Tuesday. Officials urged drivers to stay away from flooded roads, noting that vehicles are involved in the leading cause of flood-related deaths.
Forecasters say Hurricane Polo is combining with moisture from Hurricane Odalys and a dip in the jet stream to create a major rainstorm
Heavy rain and flooding are expected across at least 15 states this week (file image)
“Flooding of washes and creeks will occur, some dirt roads will become muddy and impassable. Paved roads and underpasses could become flooded as well,” the NWS said in a statement.
“Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.”
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said New Mexico could face “the most dangerous flash flooding risk in the last five years or more,” emphasizing the need to monitor conditions and avoid rapidly rising water.
The NWS cautioned that recent storms have already saturated soils across the Southwest, leaving the ground with little capacity to absorb the additional rainfall expected this week.
That has placed six states—Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Kansas—in a Moderate Risk zone for excessive rainfall Tuesday, signaling an elevated threat of flooding and flash flooding.
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Forecasters said colder air pushing the jet stream south will help carry moisture from Polo and Odalys eastward, sending the storm’s effects into the Midwest and Great Lakes later this week.
The heaviest rain and thunderstorms are expected across central Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas Wednesday before spreading into parts of Arkansas and Missouri Thursday.
Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph could affect the South as Polo’s remnants move into the United States. The storm, which made landfall in Mexico on Monday, is expected to weaken below hurricane strength before reaching the Southwest.
Rain is forecast from the Southwest to the Great Lakes this week, with flood watches and flash flood warnings issued across 10 states
Floodwaters covered roads after Hurricane Polo reached Loreto in Mexico’s Baja California Sur on Tuesday
AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Duffus added: ‘This rainfall event will essentially consist of a triple threat combination: moisture leftover from Odalys, moisture transported from Polo and the incoming trough shifting across the West.’
‘All pieces will work together to create a life-threatening rainfall event for some locations.’
In mountainous areas, the heavy rains may trigger local mudslides, and AccuWeather has projected that the greatest risk of widespread property damage and injuries will likely be seen across New Mexico and central Texas this week.
The storm has already begun to impact travel throughout the Southwest, with Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport issuing a ground delay until at least 4pm ET due to thunderstorms.
Flights at the airport have been delayed by an average of 37 minutes as of 11am ET.
Hurricane Polo, a major component of this week’s massive storm, struck the California Baja Peninsula in Mexico on Monday, flooding local towns and causing widespread property damage.
NWS has projected that Polo will weaken as it moves over land, but may still be a tropical storm as its eye nears the Texas border Tuesday night.
Streets were submerged in the town of Puerto San Carlos, Baja California Sur, on Tuesday
Flooding is expected in the US Southwest as the hurricane moves over Mexico on Tuesday