Tropical Storm Karina has garnered significant attention as it is now anticipated to escalate into a major hurricane. Recent forecasting models indicate that this powerful system could be on a potentially destructive trajectory towards California.
According to the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Karina currently exhibits sustained winds surpassing 50 mph. Expectations are set for this storm to progress into hurricane status by as early as Friday evening.
Forecasters predict that by Sunday morning, Karina will intensify into a formidable Category 3 hurricane, characterized by winds exceeding 111 mph, which could pose significant dangers.
Utilizing new spaghetti models that map out potential paths of tropical systems, analysts suggest several scenarios that might lead Karina to make landfall along the California Coast, potentially affecting millions.
Early data from the American forecasting model, known as GFS, has outlined scenarios for an unprecedented landfall in major cities such as San Diego or Los Angeles, raising concerns for residents in these areas.
The so-called European model, also known as the EPS Ensemble, was more skeptical of a US landfall on Thursday, predicting that Karina would stay away from the California Coast and move out to sea.
However, both prediction models were updated on Friday, with both now showing potential paths to Southern California and points further north.
A hurricane has never made landfall in California in recorded history, according to the National Weather Service, and the last time a tropical storm directly impacted the state was in 1997.
Tropical Storm Karina (Seen on radar) is expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday, August 30
Beachgoers in San Diego (Pictured) may see the first tropical storm or hurricane near Southern California in nearly 30 years next week (Stock Image)
Forecasts predict Karina will reach hurricane status by Friday night
A tropical storm has not taken such a path, from the Pacific Ocean straight into the California Coast, in nearly a century, when the Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939.
It is important to note that forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and get closer to making landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets.
Spaghetti models, which show a large sampling of weather predictions, also reveal a great amount of uncertainty about a hurricane when they show paths going in several different directions – which is the current case with Karina.
The more tightly clustered the spaghetti models are, the more confident meteorologists are in the route of a storm.
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Tropical Storm Karina is currently less than 1,400 miles south from San Diego and is moving northwest at 13 mph far offshore from the coast of Mexico.
Three years ago, Hurricane Hilary impacted Southern California, but weather officials later determined that the storm was no longer a named cyclone when it made landfall.
The last time the state was struck by an actual tropical storm was in 1997 when a weakening Hurricane Nora crossed from Mexico into the US still at tropical storm strength.
In 2026, AccuWeather’s lead long range forecaster Paul Pastelok has warned that the stage is set for a historic storm to reach California, thanks to the emergence of the weather phenomenon El Niño.
Spaghetti models, such as the American model (Pictured), project that Karina may turn to the northeast and make landfall in California
The European forecasting model, which predicted on Thursday that Karina would avoid the US, was updated to reveal a possible path towards the US West Coast
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that simply means that the Pacific Ocean has become noticeably warmer than its historical average.
However, this warming flips global weather patterns, causing storms to become more potent and capable of lasting longer in the Pacific, while weakening in the Atlantic.
AccuWeather meteorologists have predicted that this year’s El Niño will likely be the strongest in recorded history, with sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific rising by 4.8°F (2.66°C).
This would count as a ‘Super’ El Niño, meaning Pacific temperatures have risen by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2.0 degrees Celsius).
Pastelok told the Daily Mail in June: ‘There could be some insane flooding that could take place, not only just in the summer, but it could even be out of season as well into the wintertime.’
‘You gotta watch the combination of the monsoon and marine heatwave. A marine heatwave that’s near the Baja, with El Niño combined, you’ve got three things working to possibly produce some unusual type of wet weather in Southern California, Phoenix, Tucson, in that area there.’
This is a breaking story. More details to follow.
Pictured: A maintenance vehicle clears mud near stranded vehicles along a flooded street after Tropical Storm Hilary struck Cathedral City, California on August 21, 2023 (File Image)