The emerging Gaza peace framework crafted by President Donald Trump could reshape regional dynamics, but analysts warn that unless Hamas is fully stripped of its weapons and power, this will amount to little more than a pause for the terrorist group before it renews conflict.

Dr. Michael Milshtein, head of the Moshe Dayan Forum at Tel Aviv University and one of Israel’s foremost experts on Hamas, says any plan that assumes the group will dissolve misunderstands its nature.

“Forget words like peace and coexistence — that won’t happen,” he told Fox News Digital. Hamas leaders, he explained, have made clear they will not accept an international mandate or a Tony Blair-style trusteeship. “They’re prepared to let a cosmetic Palestinian administration run daily affairs, but Hamas will operate behind the scenes, like Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

Tamir Heiman, a former Israeli intelligence chief, described three possible scenarios once the hostages are released and fighting subsides. In the best case, Hamas cooperates with the establishment of an alternative technocratic government supported by international policing forces. If it refuses, Israel could still transfer limited security control to an international force “in separate sectors, gradually,” he said.

File showing a terrorist from Hamas taking part in a military parade.  (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File Photo)

The third scenario — and, in his view, the most likely — is that no foreign force steps in. “The IDF would remain in areas along what we call the yellow line, operating like a security buffer similar to southern Lebanon,” Heiman said. Under that model, Israel maintains freedom of operation while Hamas retains light weapons but is stripped of rockets and missile factories. “It’s not peace,” he added, “but it’s managed security.”

Taken together, the analysts paint a cautious picture. The Trump team has aligned regional interests and generated rare cooperation among Arab capitals, they say, but sustaining that unity through disarmament and reconstruction will be the true measure of success.

If Hamas continues to exist as a hybrid militia-government, experts warn, the world may soon discover that the “peace” is only an intermission between rounds — a pause mistaken for an ending.