The Munich Security Conference has given a critical assessment of Donald Trump’s actions during his first month in office, describing them as confusing, contradictory, and deeply concerning. The sense of alarm among attendees is palpable as they observe the administration’s fast-paced decision-making.

One of the main reasons for apprehension is the perception that the Trump administration is taking the lead while leaving European allies behind. The end goal of Trump’s actions remains unclear to many, but there is a belief that he is pursuing a Nobel Peace Prize and sees a deal with Vladimir Putin as the path to achieving it, even if it comes at a cost to countries like Ukraine, Europe, and Britain.

Trump’s worldview is centered on the idea of might-is-right, where powerful nations act according to their capabilities and smaller nations are left to accept the consequences. This approach sidelines appeals to historical alliances and shared principles, as Trump prioritizes tactics like flattery and financial incentives in international relations.

The latter could be sated by Ukraine’s mineral riches. Lindsey Graham, the US Senator who represents the old-style Atlanticist wing of the Republican Party, has told Trump that Ukraine is valuable real estate and that Russia must not be allowed to develop it.

So it is mystifying that Trump, the supposedly hard-nosed author of The Art Of The Deal, has given Putin big concessions before talks have even started.

Will he allow Putin to dominate Europe in return for Moscow severing its alliance with Beijing? He’s capable of pushing such a horribly mistaken policy that could be disastrous for our security.

The good news is yesterday’s dreadful positions – inviting Russia back into the G7, promising chummy summits with Putin and abandoning Ukraine outside Nato – may be dumped tomorrow.

Trump changes his mind with impunity. His desire, a senior European politician told me, is to lead the news every hour of every day. Forget consistency and predictability, attention is what matters.

Though his destination is unclear to many of us, what we do know is the US President Donald Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize

A defeated Ukraine will embolden Putin to find his next victim, perhaps Estonia

The bad news is that his bullying streak is consistent. European leaders are playing with fire when they rebuke him publicly. It will be all too easy for Trump to withdraw the vital 8,000 US troops who protect Nato’s eastern frontier.

He can cancel the intelligence-sharing with Ukraine that provides its hard-pressed troops with their electronic eyes and ears.

A broken, defeated Ukraine will be a catastrophe for Europe, with millions of refugees fleeing west.

It will embolden Putin to find his next victim – perhaps Estonia, where Britain has scraped together 1,000 troops as part of a Nato tripwire force. But without Americans, that tripwire rings no bells.

True, European countries are belatedly boosting defence spending. But it will take years before they can fill the gap the Americans would leave. 

They cannot even provide a credible force to protect Ukraine after a ceasefire deal. For now, when it comes to European security, the Americans are the only game in town.

All this leaves Britain in a dreadful position. We cannot join the Europeans in denouncing Trump’s selfish, cynical approach. 

Vlodymyr Zelenskyy at a bilateral meeting with US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference

Our intelligence and nuclear relationship with the US is central to our defence. We know they can be a difficult ally but the alternative is worse.

Yet we do not want to see Europe isolated, failing and splintering, falling prey to Russian – and Chinese – influence. That would be a catastrophe for our own security.

We should also worry about a European superstate taking shape without our participation. Yesterday President Zelensky called for a European army and certainly fear of Putin is driving continental leaders to take collective security seriously as never before.

The bleak truth is that Britain’s hollowed-out Armed Forces, stagnant economy and lightweight political leadership risk leaving us on the sidelines. And for that we have only ourselves to blame.