Donald Trump tariff formula: Team cites Chicago economist Brent Neiman's work, but he says their math doesn't check out
Share and Follow

CHICAGO (WLS) — A Chicago economist in now at the center of the firestorm surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

University of Chicago Booth School of Business economist Brent Neiman told the I-Team the policy is based, in part, on academic work he co-wrote with three renowned economists — which he insists the administration miscalculated.

ABC7 Chicago is now streaming 24/7. Click here to watch

Neiman wrote in a New York Times Op-Ed on Monday, “they got it all wrong”.

When Trump paraded an oversized chart into the Rose Garden last week as part of his pitch for global tariffs, some economists’ eyes popped at the seemingly inflated numbers.

Neiman was one of them.

SEE ALSO | Trump tariff formula misrepresents global trade economics, experts say

“My immediate thought was ‘Gosh, how could those numbers be so high?'” he said.

Those numbers, Trump said, show tariffs levied against U.S. products by other countries.

But those numbers, economists explain, are not tariffs against the U.S., but a calculation of trade deficit between the U.S. and other countries.

And it was Neiman’s work, in part, from this 2021 research piece on tariffs published by that American Economic Association, Trump’s team cited in calculating those reciprocal tariffs.

And the administration’s math, Neiman said doesn’t check out.

“I think they grabbed the wrong number from our research. The one that I would use from my own research and plug into their equation is actually four times larger than the number they used, and as a result, the deficits they calculated are four times larger than I think they should have got.”

READ MORE | Dow closes 349 points lower after roller coaster trading amid tariff fallout

Northwestern University economist Martin Eichenbaum knows that report and its authors well.

“We trade both in goods and services, and apparently they only use goods, and that makes a huge difference, because we export a lot of services, like finance, entertainment, health, universities, right,” stated Eichenbaum.

Now, as markets reel in the uncertainty of tariffs and global trade, Trump on Monday showed no sign of changing course.

He said, “It’s the only chance we’re going to have to reset the table on trade, and when we do, we’re going to come out unbelievably well. We’re going to have a strong country economically again and we’re going to have those factories that are empty all over the United States.”

Neiman tried to make clear in the New York Times Op Ed that his philosophy and math do not support these reciprocal tariffs.

He explained, “The last thing I wanted was my work to be described as leading to these policies, which I think are really bad for Americans.”

Neiman, who worked for the U.S. Treasury Department under the Biden administration, said he has not spoken with the Trump administration directly, but he’s been told that they are aware of him pointing out their mathematical error.

Copyright © 2025 WLS-TV. All Rights Reserved.

Share and Follow
You May Also Like
Inventor of subtle car feature that has helped drivers dies aged 80

Revolutionary Car Feature Innovator Passes at 80: Celebrating a Legacy of Safer Driving

James Moylan, the visionary behind the small yet significant dashboard arrow indicating…
FBI agents detail Kash Patel's 'diva' behavior over screen time

FBI Agents Reveal Kash Patel’s Demands for Screen Time: Inside the Diva Drama

FBI agents have recently unveiled concerns regarding Director Kash Patel, alleging that…
FILE - New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani speaks during a news conference, in the Queens borough of New York, Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Heather Khalifa, File)

Can Zohran Mamdani’s Ambitious Vision Transform NYC? A Look at His Mayoral Promises

Zohran Mamdani is poised to make sweeping changes in New York City’s…
What to do on New Year's Eve 2025: Chicago officials share new details for 2026 Loop event featuring Chance the Rapper

Ring in 2026: Chicago’s Epic New Year’s Eve Bash with Chance the Rapper in the Loop

CHICAGO (WLS) — Excitement is building in Chicago as city officials unveil…
3 injured in fight turned shooting at Jacksonville Westside bar, officers said

Three Injured in Altercation Escalating to Shooting at Westside Bar, Reports Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office

Authorities reported that a confrontation erupted inside Tipsy Bar & Grill, where…
Body of triathlete found after shark attack off California coast

Triathlete’s Body Recovered Following Shark Attack off California Coast

In a tragic turn of events, the body of a missing triathlete…
Volodymyr Zelensky says US is offering Ukraine 15-year security guarantee in latest peace plan

US Proposes 15-Year Security Guarantee for Ukraine in New Peace Plan, Says President Zelensky

In a recent development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that the United…
Fifth suspected New Orleans accomplice arrested for allegedly aiding inmates in jailbreak

2025’s Most Intense Manhunts: Five Cases That Gripped American Cities and Campuses

Throughout the year, fugitives have transformed serene neighborhoods, small towns, and college…