OTTAWA, Canada — As new tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, analysts say that if Canada’s Liberal Party holds onto power, the party can thank President Donald Trump in part for such a reversal of political fortune.

Since Trump’s inauguration, Canada’s official opposition Conservative Party – once leading the governing Liberals by a wide margin – has seen their popularity in public-opinion polls gradually decline. 

An Ipsos poll released last week found that, for the first time since the Liberals won the last federal election in 2021, they’re ahead of the Conservatives by two points, with 38% popularity compared to the Conservatives at 36%. Six weeks earlier, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 26 points. A general election is expected to be called as early as this spring by Trudeau’s successor, who will be announced on Sunday.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, told Fox News Digital that he has never seen a party experience such a rapid and dramatic drop during his four-decade career in polling.

President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office on Feb. 25, 2025. (Pool)

Veteran Canadian pollster Angus Reid said the latest polling by his company found that 51% said Carney and the Liberals were best suited to improve relations with the U.S., including on tariffs, compared to 35% who chose the Conservatives under Poilievre, who is seen by many Canadians as holding a “Trump-light agenda.”

From south of the border, the president has “eroded Conservative support because it completely changed the political dynamic in Canada, completely changed what could be considered the most important ballot question that was all about getting rid of some of the baggage from the Trudeau era,” explained Reid, founder and chair of the Angus Reid Institute.

“Now it’s one of defending the sovereignty and economy of the country.”

Another Angus Reid poll found that with Carney as Liberal leader, his party is virtually tied at 44% with the Conservatives, at 45% on voting intention. In Quebec, a Carney-led Liberal Party enjoys 31% support compared to the Conservatives at 22%.

Guests display a giant Canadian flag before a flag-raising ceremony on Feb. 15, 2025, in Toronto. (Yu Ruidong/China News Service/VCG via AP)

Reid said the annexation and tariffs issue especially resonates with Quebecers more than any other region in Canada.

Carney’s further challenge for Poilievre is that the former “on paper, looks like a Conservative,” said Nanos.

“The guy worked in the banking sector and the private sector, like Goldman Sachs, and chaired, until recently, large enterprises like Bloomberg and Brookfield [Asset Management]. He walks and talks like a Conservative.”

Carney, an Oxford-educated economist who has never held elected office, is expected to call a snap election should he be chosen as Trudeau’s successor.

If the polling numbers continue to rise in favor of the Liberals, they could not only win the national vote in such a contest but form a majority government, added Reid. 

Currently, the Liberals have 153 MPs in the 338-seat House of Commons, which constitutes a minority government.