“We are way closer to the beginning than we are to the end,” former CIA Moscow station chief Dan Hoffman said as Ukraine entered a fourth year of war on Monday. 

Since the Nov. 5, 2024, re-election of President Donald Trump, the Western world has been scrambling to understand what the future holds for Russia’s war in Ukraine as Washington looks to re-establish ties with Moscow in a move to end the conflict and secure a peace deal.

In the span of a week, Trump held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin; Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov; retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sparked international debate by pronouncing that Ukraine would unlikely be permitted to join NATO.

Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Feb. 14, 2025. (Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images)

Green said European nations may need to come up with their own solution to counter a U.S.-Moscow proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. 

Ultimately, the security experts warned that the increasingly apparent divisions between Washington under the Trump administration and Europe are playing into one of Putin’s longtime chief aims.

“I think there’s a need to get a coordinated approach that brings in our allies and partners [and] maintains that source of strength,” Monahan said. “I think Putin is very happy he has been able to achieve one of his strategic goals, which is create disunion and division among the United States and its allies in the transatlantic relationship.”

When asked by Fox News Digital if some of the controversial comments made by Trump, like calling Zelenskyy a dictator, claiming he has low internal approval ratings and seeming to suggest he was to blame for Russia’s illegal invasion, are aiding Putin in his negotiating calculus, Hoffman said, “I don’t know what damage, if any, it’s causing, but the intelligence community can assess that.”

Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower on Sept. 27, 2024, in New York City. (AP/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

“What Vladimir Putin thinks about the U.S. and Ukraine, about Zelenskyy and Trump going, rhetorically at least, toe to toe in the Octagon against each other – it’s not a great look,” he added. 

“[Putin] thinks he can break Europe. He doesn’t think Europe is going to be strong enough without the United States,” Hoffman argued. “That’s certainly the past. The history during the Soviet-Evil Empire, it was the U.S. strength, our nuclear umbrella, that deterred the Soviet Union from expanding.

“NATO has always been an alliance to deter Russian aggression,” he said. “We’re nowhere close to knowing how all this is going to play out. 

“Right now, you’re just hearing a lot of noise,” Hoffman cautioned.