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The deadline for filing candidacy for the Los Angeles mayoral race closed at noon this past Saturday, marking the official start of what promises to be a competitive contest.
Contrary to initial expectations, Karen Bass faces a more challenging race than anticipated. Initially, it seemed like she might have an easy path to victory, but the landscape has shifted significantly.
Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer, chose not to pursue another challenge. Similarly, LA County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath opted out of the race, and Austin Beutner, the former LA Times publisher, withdrew following the tragic loss of his daughter.
A potential match-up against a Republican, especially a high-profile figure like former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, could effectively transform the election into a referendum on Donald Trump in the predominantly Democratic Los Angeles. This is a scenario Bass might find advantageous.
However, the dynamics are further complicated by the entry of a formidable contender from the left: City Council member Nithya Raman. Her presence in the race adds another layer of complexity, making it anything but straightforward for Bass.
Who even thought that was possible?
Raman’s entry turns the primary into a progressive purity contest. That’s the nightmare scenario for a Democratic incumbent — not a fight with the right, but a revolt from the left.
And it’s happening for a reason. Bass isn’t being challenged from the left because she’s too moderate. She’s being challenged because the city she runs isn’t working.
And let’s be clear: Bass isn’t exactly a centrist.
A close ally of Nancy Pelosi during her years in Congress, she built a reputation as one of the House’s more reliably liberal members. She even lamented the death of Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, whom she called “Comandante en jefe.”
In other words, ideology isn’t what’s hurting Bass.
This isn’t about ideology. It’s about competence.
Bass has become the face of the entrenched bureaucracy running LA — and that system is broken. Because she owns that system, she can’t convincingly argue that her progressive policies are delivering progressive results.
To activists, she doesn’t look like a reformer. She looks like the establishment.
Raman already proved this insurgent-left model works. In 2020, she ousted Democratic Council member David Ryu with backing from the Democratic Socialists of America and a coalition of progressive activists who argued City Hall wasn’t moving fast enough.
That same activist machine — the kind of left-wing operation that just flexed its muscle in New York — can outflank establishment Democrats quickly when frustration with government performance boils over.
This isn’t just about personalities. It’s about a political machine that’s beaten establishment Democrats before.
And it’s landing in a city that feels like it’s sliding.
Start with what residents see every day.
Potholes linger. Sidewalks crack. Too many streetlights stay dark, and trash piles up.
Voters notice.
Homelessness still defines too many neighborhoods. Encampments remain near schools and parks. Residents don’t feel relief. They feel exhaustion.
Emergency response times have become a growing concern. Budget deficits loom. Services feel strained. LA is supposed to be preparing to host the Olympics, yet the city doesn’t feel ready for an ordinary week.
Hollywood production is leaving, taking jobs and economic energy with it. That’s not a culture-war issue. That’s a governance issue.
Last week, the Los Angeles Times reported that Bass ordered changes to a critical wildfire response review, raising serious questions about transparency.
Bass, of course, denies that.
But after years of visible decline, there’s little public trust left for her to fall back on when controversies hit.
To fend off Raman, Bass may try to reassert her left-wing credentials — talk bigger, promise more, lean even harder into progressive causes.
But that doesn’t repair broken streets, clean parks, or make people feel safe. It doesn’t convince voters that the city is ready for the next disaster.
And Bass also has an energetic Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, challenging her on that very front.
Ironically, socialism would make all of the city’s pathologies worse.
If elected, Raman would likely bring higher taxes, new fees, tighter restrictions on housing, more regulations for small businesses — and a massive downgrade in law enforcement.
If a slate of like-minded socialists joins Raman on the City Council, the shift won’t be symbolic. It will be structural. Perhaps a downward spiral.
Bass brought LA to this point through incompetence. Voters in deep-blue cities may support progressive values, but they also want their city to function.
That’s how a mayor with Bass’s résumé ends up vulnerable from her own left flank.
Too many Angelenos think their city is fraying — and their mayor is in charge of the system that failed them.
That creates a potent political mix. Ideological progressives who think City Hall hasn’t gone far enough could rally behind Raman, even if she’d make things worse.
At the same time, ordinary Angelenos who aren’t activists at all — just tired of the decline they see around them — may be ready to vote for change.
That kind of coalition can be more powerful than any campaign war chest — and far harder to stop.
And for Karen Bass, it’s the one she never saw coming.
Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.