Unveiling the Math: How Eight Democrats Equal Two Republicans in Political Strategy

In the race to succeed California’s Governor Gavin Newsom, a crowded lineup of eight Democratic contenders is creating a split in the party, posing a significant challenge for the Democratic stronghold.

This division opens up a startling possibility: a Republican could clinch victory in the upcoming November election.

Efforts by party leaders to persuade some of the Democratic candidates to step down before the filing deadline on Friday have not succeeded.

The message was clear and urgent: with too many Democrats in the fray, the vote could be fragmented, potentially allowing two Republican contenders to advance to the general election, thanks to California’s “jungle” primary rules.

California’s distinctive primary system, known as the “top-two” system, was established via a statewide ballot initiative in 2010. This system places all candidates on the same primary ballot, regardless of party affiliation, and the two who garner the most votes move on to the general election.

The reform was supposed to weaken party machines and reward moderation. Instead, it sometimes leaves parties scrambling to control their own candidates and avoid electoral accidents.

Democrats have reason to worry. They faced this same scenario in the 2014 race for California controller, where a crowded Democratic field of prominent candidates nearly produced a Republican-only general election in one of the bluest states in America. Democrats ultimately avoided that embarrassment, but only barely.

More than a decade later, the Democrats see the same dynamics emerging.

Polling shows several Democratic gubernatorial candidates clustered within just a few percentage points of one another — while two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, remain ahead of the pack. 

Each of the Democrats represents a different faction within the party. Each is strong in his or her own right. Each can make the case for staying in the race.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, for example, appeals to moderate, tech-friendly voters. Northern California’s Congressman Eric Swalwell is mobilizing progressive voters with a strong anti-Trump message. Former Rep. Karie Porter is doing the same, but with her SoCal flair. 

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Former State Controller Betty Yee is drawing support from moderate Democrats and Asian-American voters. Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Attorney General Xavier Becerra are competing for Latino voters, with Becerra also benefiting from union support.

Each campaign has staked out its own natural constituency, and each believes it can survive a crowded primary. 

The growing divide between the Democratic activist base and the broader Democratic electorate makes the contest even more complicated. 

At the recent California Democratic convention in San Francisco, party delegates who participated in a straw poll showed enthusiasm for Becerra and Yee, even though they are not polling in the top 5 candidates among voters statewide. 

This isn’t simple electoral chaos. It’s the unraveling of the governing coalition Newsom held together for nearly a decade — one that blended environmental groups, organized labor, progressive activists, and business-friendly moderates. 

Now those factions are competing for post-Newsom dominance.

Republicans face their own dynamics — but simpler math.

Hilton, a political commentator, and Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, appear to be splitting the Republican vote, each drawing somewhere around 15% to 20% support in early polling.

With Democrats dividing the majority vote eight ways, Hilton and Bianco could qualify for the general election — separately, or together — with barely 20% of the primary vote, or less. 

That’s exactly the kind of outcome Democratic Party leaders are desperate to prevent.

As always in California, ultimately, the odds still favor Democrats. It is far more likely that at least one Democrat qualifies for the general election, and just one Republican, at most. 

And the Democrats’ overwhelming registration advantage means that whichever Democrat survives the primary with breath in his or her lungs — even in second place — will likely win the governorship.

But even then, the bigger issue for California Democrats will remain: Can they find a compelling leader who can unite the party around a popular set of issues?

After June 2, we may find out.

Pete Peterson is dean of Pepperdine University School of Public Policy and its Braun Family Dean’s Chair.