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“Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” declared President Trump, signaling a shift in the U.S. approach toward the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the global oil supply, has remained effectively closed since tensions escalated, with Iran targeting commercial vessels navigating the waterway.
For a while, reopening this crucial strait seemed pivotal to concluding the conflict with Iran. Many believed that restoring access was integral to easing tensions and stabilizing the region.
However, President Trump appears ready to conclude the U.S. campaign without necessarily breaking Iran’s hold on this strategic route. His recent remarks suggest a willingness to move forward even if Tehran maintains its influence over the strait.
Despite this stance, Trump’s implication that the U.S. will refrain from efforts to reopen the strait might be somewhat overstated, hinting at ongoing complexities in the situation.
Adjunct professor with the University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute Jennifer Parker said she expects there will be heavy US involvement in any diplomatic negotiation with Iran.
“You’ve got to remember with President Trump, he’ll say one thing one day and another thing another day,” Parker told nine.com.au.
“I don’t think, despite Trump’s comments, that the US will not be engaged in [opening the strait].
“I think those tweets are unhelpful. But I don’t think that the US will walk away from that problem.”
The Trump administration previously threatened to forbibly take control of the Strait of Hormuz “one way or another”.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it may happen a few different ways, one of which could see a coalition of nations intervene to allow traffic back into the waterway.
Parker said, even if the conflict ends overnight, it will take a delicate operation to ensure ships can safely pass through.
“There’ll need to be a consistent campaign of making sure that civilian ships feel safe to go through the Strait,” she said.
“And that will involve military patrols, it may well involve some escorts, it will involve strategic communications and broader naval presence.
“And then my view is that that will involve a coalition of some sorts.”
Parker said she is almost certain that the US would be part of this coalition, despite his recent verbal retaliation against key allies.
“I think that they will play a leading role, as they have always done, in terms of the maritime security around that Strait,” she added.
But Trump’s words on Truth Social will carry some meaning.
The president’s worldview stems from the Reagan-era of an aggressive US superpower, where allies will respond swiftly to a call to arms.
Parker doesn’t believe this is entirely “unfair”.
“Where it becomes unreasonable, though, is the way that Trump expresses that,” she added.
“You also can’t say that alliances also don’t depend on trust and political suitability.
“I do think that it does undermine public trust in those alliances.”
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