Virginia Republicans are growing cautiously optimistic about Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) chances in November’s gubernatorial race after new polling released this week showed the Republican nominee closing the gap. 

A Roanoke College poll released earlier this week showed former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) leading Earle-Sears 46 percent to 39 percent among likely Virginia voters. Another 14 percent of voters said they were undecided, while 1 percent said they would vote for someone else. The poll marked a shift from the latest Roanoke College poll released in May, which showed Spanberger leading 43 percent to 26 percent. 

The same poll also showed tight races in the lieutenant governor and the attorney general race. 

Virginia state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads Republican John Reid in the race to replace Earle-Sears 38 percent to 35 percent, while former Del. Jay Jones (D) leads incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) 41 percent to 38 percent.

Republicans say alleviated concerns about the management of the lieutenant governor’s campaign, coupled with a focus on cultural issues in some Northern Virginia schools, is benefitting the state’s GOP ticket. 

“I think she’s got a shot,” said conservative talk show host John Fredericks, who just last month was referring to Earle-Sears’ scampaign as a “clown car.” 

Fredericks, who was President Trump’s 2016 and 2020 Virginia campaign chair, noted that the Roanoke College poll was “a game-changer.” 

“Being down seven in a poll that always skews a few points to the Democrats is a pretty good sign when you were down by 17. It means you gained 10,” Fredericks said. “This is despite a brutal campaign with no management that makes any sense and no message and basically no money.” 

The latest polling average released earlier this month by The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ prior to the release of the most recent Roanoke College poll shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 45.2 percent to 36 percent.

Spanberger has also been leading Earle-Sears in the money race. According to the latest campaign finance data from the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger has raised $27 million since she jumped into the race in November 2023 and has more than $15 million in the bank. Earle-Sears has raised more than $11 million since launching her campaign and has more than $4 million cash on hand.

One Virginia Republican strategist noted that Earle-Sears has had “some complications” but is “rising to the moment right now.” 

“We’re seeing better movement out of the campaign,” the strategist noted. 

Earle-Sears’s campaign has recently amplified its rhetoric on the issues of transgender rights and abortion in Virginia schools. The Department of Education announced last week that the Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Loudoun County, and Prince William County school boards were at risk of losing their federal funding after the school boards rejected an agreement with the department on resolving investigations into transgender student policies. A number of Virginia school districts have policies in place that permit students to go into bathrooms and locker rooms correspond with their chosen gender identity.  

Earle-Sears stepped into the fray on Thursday evening when she spoke at the Arlington County School Board meeting. 

“What is happening in our schools right now is just, it’s dangerous, it’s insane and it has to stop,” Earle-Sears said. “Here’s the truth. There are two sexes, boys and girls, and for generations, we’ve understood this that they deserve their own sports teams, their own locker rooms, their own bathrooms.”

The meeting garnered attention after the Earle-Sears campaign posted a picture of a protester outside the meeting with a sign reading, “Hey Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom, then Blacks can’t share my water fountain.” 

Spanberger and other Democrats condemned the display. 

“It’s racist, abhorrent and unacceptable,” the Spanberger campaign said in a statement. 

Republicans inside and outside of Virginia were quick to condemn the sign. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) wrote in a post on X that “the hypocrisy of the liberal left is on display again,” while Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who’s running for governor of Florida, wrote on the platform that “THIS is the Radical Left Democrat Party.” 

“Yeah, they got heckled and protested by all of those crazy people but they set themselves up in a position where the liberals went too far and now they’re making hay of it online,” the Virginia Republican strategist said. 

The focus on cultural issues, particularly in the classroom, harkens back to Youngkin’s focus on parents’ rights in their children’s classrooms. The issue became a flashpoint in the 2021 gubernatorial race, particularly after Youngkin’s opponent former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) said at a debate that he did not believe parents should be telling schools what they should teach. 

“It’s a smart move,” said Bob Holsworth, a veteran Virginia political analyst. “They go after these issues and they are then covered on Fox News and this becomes a free advertisement for the Republican ticket across Virginia.” 

“It’s earned media across the state which you rarely get in a gubernatorial campaign today,” he continued. “Now you have people all across the state hearing what they don’t like about the Democrats’ culture positions and it’s not simply because Sears simply shows up at the meeting.” 

But it will still be an uphill climb for Earle-Sears. Other Virginia Republicans note there is reason to be concerned ahead of November, pointing to what they said was Earle-Sears’s issues with candidate quality, money and the environment on the ground. 

“[The] Roanoke poll was almost as close as Youngkin,” said one Virginia GOP operative referring to Youngkin’s standing in his election in 2021. “But [the] environment, money, [the] candidates aren’t as good.”

However, the operative did not rule out other potential factors that could impact the race between now and November. 

“Boys in girls sports could prove to be a very animating issue? Spanberger could gaffe hard?” the operative said in a text message. 

Holsworth warned against reading too much into the Roanoke poll, arguing it was weighted in terms of the turnout in the 2021 gubernatorial election which saw heavier GOP turnout than usual. 

“Maybe that’ll be the case but that’s not the general feeling,” Holsworth said.