As we gear up for this year’s Gator Bowl, it’s time to set aside preconceptions about conference standings and preseason hype.

Virginia, ranked 19th with a 10-3 record, has crafted its season on a foundation of disciplined, low-risk strategies, thriving in high-stakes, close encounters. Earlier in the season, the Cavaliers faced four consecutive nail-biters, including three that stretched into overtime. Even during their toughest challenge—a loss to Duke in the ACC Championship—they managed to push the contest into extra time on a neutral field.

Meanwhile, Missouri started strong with a 5-0 run but stumbled significantly afterward, finishing the season at 8-4.

The Tigers heavily rely on their ground game, with Ahmad Hardy leading the charge in the backfield. However, as they approach Saturday’s clash, their offensive lineup faces serious challenges. Quarterback Beau Pribula, as well as wide receivers Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning, have entered the transfer portal, while tight end Brett Norfleet is sidelined. Adding to their woes, offensive coordinator Kirby Moore has left for a position at Washington State.

Despite Hardy’s impressive 1,560 rushing yards, which place him second in the nation, the Tigers find themselves relying almost exclusively on his talents. This leaves them vulnerable, particularly against a Virginia team well-equipped to capitalize on Missouri’s current limitations.

The Cavaliers were a top-20 team in yards allowed per carry and rarely allowed explosive runs. With Missouri’s passing game also limited, Virginia is likely to load the box and force backup quarterback Matt Zollers to beat them with table scraps downfield. 

Their offense is functional when it matters. Chandler Morris adds some mobility under center and delivered some of the most efficient plays Virginia has had in years. 

J’Mari Taylor isn’t just a 1,000-yard rusher; his 43 receptions give Virginia a pressure-release valve against a Missouri defense that has been consistently strong, limiting explosive plays. 

Missouri beat only one bowl-bound team all season. Virginia exceeded every reasonable expectation, tied a program record with 10 wins, and is playing for its first 11-win season in 136 years of existence. 

Betting on College Football?

This could have plenty of fourth-quarter tension and taking more than four points with a team that has thrived in close games all season plays as the sharp side according to reports.

Virginia is by no means a disengaged underdog drifting into bowl season — it’s a team that has already shown it can win ugly and win late.

THE PLAY: UVA +4.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.