() As the clock ticks down on President Donald Trump’s deadline, U.S. trading partners are rushing to reach agreements, but prediction market traders are skeptical any will result in new free trade deals.

Canada leads as the favorite on the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi, where traders put the likelihood of a new free trade deal this year at 22%. Vietnam and Mexico ranked second and third, both at 20%, as of Thursday afternoon.

Those odds may seem low given what’s already been announced, but for a “yes” wager to pay out, a new free trade agreement must become law by Jan. 1 handshake deals don’t count.

Trump set a new trade deadline of Aug. 1, warning that dozens of countries would face higher tariffs after that date, but the odds on Kalshi suggest broad skepticism that any new free trade deals will be formally completed before the end of the year.

Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a political agreement Sunday that would impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports, but as of Thursday, the two sides were still working on a joint statement laying out the terms. That document won’t be legally binding.

Traders on Kalshi see only a 14% chance that a new free trade deal with the EU will become law this year.

Trump has insisted that the Aug. 1 deadline won’t be extended, but on Thursday, he announced that Mexico the United States’ biggest trading partner would get another 90 days to try to reach a deal.

What countries could face new tariffs?

Kalshi speculators are also wagering on which countries could face new tariffs this year. Colombia led the pack Thursday, with traders seeing a roughly 30% chance of that happening.

As for China, widely seen as Trump’s top trade rival, a tariff truce is set to expire Aug. 12, but the two sides are currently working to extend the deadline.

Kalshi traders put the odds of a new free trade agreement with China at 36% as of Thursday. For that bet to pay off, a new free trade agreement with China has to become law before the end of Trump’s term, Jan. 20, 2029.

After outperforming traditional polls in forecasting the 2024 election, prediction markets like Kalshi have emerged as widely watched indicators of public sentiment.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.