The odds of a government shutdown are surging as President Trump battles Democrats over efforts to freeze funding and Republicans brawl internally over the size and scope of potential cuts.

With a mid-March deadline fast approaching, negotiators on Capitol Hill have yet to agree on the top-line numbers to guide the extension of federal funding through September, let alone the legislative details that can win enough bipartisan support to prevent a shutdown. And Democrats are pointing directly to Trump’s controversial executive actions including an early attempt to freeze money previously allocated by Congress as a major factor behind the impasse. 

Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, told reporters this week that “the level of trust is at the lowest I have ever seen it here in Congress, in our ability to work together, find a compromise and get it passed.”

The list of obstacles impeding passage of a bipartisan deal to avert a shutdown is a long one and none of those obstacles will be easy to overcome.

The bills crafted in the Senate are largely bipartisan a stark contrast to the funding plans approved so far in the GOP-led House, where Republicans want lower funding levels with a host of partisan riders that Democrats have decried as “poison pills.”

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), meanwhile, can afford virtually no defections in his fractious conference on any party-line measure an issue exemplified this week when Republicans were forced to punt a preliminary vote on an unrelated budget measure that would have paved the way to pass Trump’s top priorities with just GOP support. And he will face heavy pressure to avoid a bipartisan compromise, which is exactly the issue that led to the toppling of his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), in the fall of 2023.

And Democrats say they have little appetite to help Republicans, given Trump’s latest moves, and intend to use their leverage in the spending fight.

Trump, despite winning less than 50 percent of the popular vote, is claiming a mandate to enact his agenda without compromise a position that belies the fact that Democratic buy-in will be needed to get any spending bill through Congress and to his desk.

The president is also claiming the authority to impound funding already approved by Congress, which has infuriated Democrats who say it’s patently illegal and undermined trust between the parties heading into the meat of the negotiations. 

Additionally, Trump has empowered Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, to slash government spending, and the March fight over appropriations will be the first real opportunity for Republicans to demonstrate that they’re on board. Conservatives on Capitol Hill, especially those in the House, are already there, threatening to oppose any spending bill that doesn’t feature drastic cuts and setting up a clash with Democrats who say those same cuts are nonstarters. 

The combination has heightened the threat of a shutdown after March 14, when funding is scheduled to expire.

The chaotic political environment lends plenty of leverage to Democrats in the spending fight, and they’re already sending clear signals that they intend to use it. 

“Republicans have a narrow majority in the House, and we are ready, willing, and able to work with them, our Republican colleagues, to improve the quality of life for everyday Americans,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Monday. 

“[But] we will not participate in a Republican rip-off that steals taxpayer money from the American people.”

Congressional negotiators on both sides of the aisle had previously been optimistic of striking a bipartisan, bicameral top-line deal in January in a bid to craft and pass all 12 government funding bills by March. But those hopes have dimmed, particularly among those on the Democratic side, amid fallout over Trump’s orders.

Asked Tuesday if he was confident in Congress’s ability to meet the mid-March deadline, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), the top Democrat on the subcommittee that crafts annual funding for the Department of Homeland Security, simply said “nope.”

“They’re destroying the federal government as we speak. They’re literally lighting agencies on fire one by one,” Murphy said. “They’re ignoring congressional requirements to spend money. We’re in the middle of a crisis.”

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), another senior appropriator, also voiced concerns that Trump’s recent orders have increased the risk of a shutdown next month. 

“I think they’ve made it clear they don’t care about the operations, what government does and how it helps people,” she said. 

Republicans have continued to brush off the alarms from Democrats. But there is acknowledgement that Congress is facing a shrinking window to strike a funding deal with little progress to show in the weeks since passing its last stopgap in December to buy time for spending talks.  

“It’s hard to know what’s going on, but it’s not like we haven’t had trouble with top lines in the last Congress and now this Congress,” said Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), a spending cardinal. “But we do need to decide very quickly.”

Trump has ignited a political firestorm in Washington after rolling out a series of actions to halt funds for federal programs deemed inconsistent with his agenda, including measures targeting dollars approved for climate and infrastructure laws passed under his predecessor.

But there is much uncertainty around which of Trump’s actions will stick, particularly after a federal judge recently extended a block on the president’s widespread funding pause amid rising questions over the legality of his recent actions.

Sen. Brian Schatz (Hawaii), the top Democrat on the subcommittee that oversees State Department funding, said Tuesday that “the chances of a shutdown always increase” under Trump, but he added that Democrats aren’t “negotiating for them to uphold the law.”

“We’re not making a new law that says they have to uphold the old law. They just have to comply with the law,” he said. 

“That’s a separate conversation about how the Republicans are nowhere on top lines, and generally speaking, don’t know how to do the most foundational aspect of the job, which is to deliver an appropriations bill, so they’re nowhere and we’re still waiting for our top line.”