If YOU believe the NCAA Tournament begins in Dayton with the First Four, you probably think that a hot dog is a sandwich. 

All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Xavier (-2.5) over Texas

Zach Freemantle, the leading scorer and rebounder for the Musketeers senior team, is finally getting his chance to shine after a lengthy absence due to injury, which included missing Xavier’s Sweet 16 run in 2023. In contrast, playmaking guard Ryan Conwell has been on fire in March, scoring 20 points or more in four consecutive games before exploding for a 38-point performance in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. With head coach Sean Miller boasting a 21-12 record in the NCAA Tournament, Xavier, known for its sharpshooting abilities, has won seven of its last eight games and could potentially make another deep run this year.

On the other side of the court, Texas comes into the game with a less impressive track record, tied for the all-time most losses by an at-large NCAA Tournament team at 19-15. The team’s struggle is evident in their 5-13 record against top 50 teams listed on KenPom.com, despite holding a current ranking of 43rd, and losing eight of their last 12 matchups. The Longhorns showcase talent but lack consistency and discipline, committing a high number of fouls (more than 26 percent of possessions) under the leadership of a coach, Rodney, who faces mounting pressure in his position.

Mount St. Mary’s (+2.5) over American

The impending showdown between Xavier and Texas is highly anticipated, as both teams are considered among the “luckiest” in the nation, based on KenPom.com rankings. American is expected to heavily rely on their offense, known for taking almost half of its shots from beyond the arc, as they face a tough defense that has limited opponents to a mere 31.4 percent 3-point shooting throughout the season.

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The Mountaineers will lean into more trustworthy strengths, holding a superior edge on the glass (No. 47 vs. No. 283) and foul rate (No. 75 vs. No. 337), while feeding junior Dola Adebayo in the paint. During their MAAC Tournament title run, Mount St. Mary’s allowed an average of 54 points per game. 

This season: 9-13

2011-24 record: 378-340-12

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).