Three weeks prior, the United States and Israel initiated a series of intense missile and bombing attacks on Iran, transforming the once-bustling Strait of Hormuz. Previously one of the world’s most trafficked waterways, it now sees significantly reduced activity.
Comparable in width to the English Channel, this crucial maritime passage between the United Arab Emirates and Iran served as a transit route for 140 ships daily before February 28. With recent events, that number has dwindled to just 90, mostly en route to China.
The challenge for the US to maintain the strait’s openness amid Iranian countermeasures is crucial. Should this narrow flow of exports cease, the economic impact would be devastating, particularly for nations north of the Strait like Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. This disruption also threatens global oil and gas supplies.
Alternative overland transport solutions are currently unviable on a large scale due to the absence of sufficient pipelines, and any tanker convoys are vulnerable to Iranian drone attacks. Recently, Iran targeted the terminus of the only pipeline crossing Saudi Arabia at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, prompting Saudi Arabia to consider military involvement.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, warned, “Iran’s actions will have political and moral repercussions. We reserve the right to take necessary military measures if required.”
Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest oil exporter and if its trade routes are blocked, the consequences could be dire for the global economy.
So can the West keep the Strait open? If so, how? And, with Riyadh now breaking from the largely neutral ranks of its Gulf neighbours, which other countries with vital interests in the region are willing to help the US? And who is giving Trump the cold shoulder?
Saudi Arabia: Will help
Like the other Gulf States, Saudi Arabia had hoped to keep out of direct conflict with Iran, though it hosts important US bases (and a British anti-missile force). But on Thursday, Iran struck both the Saudi capital and its oil terminal on the Red Sea at Yanbu.
This has dashed Saudi hopes that while its Gulf ports were shut down it could still export oil safely from its west coast.
In response, its foreign minister raised the spectre of Saudi military retaliation. The desert kingdom’s air force in particular is formidable, including an impressive fleet of American F-15s.
Last May, Riyadh signed a £105billion arms deal with the White House, touted by Donald Trump as the ‘largest defence sales agreement in history’.
As the leading Sunni state in the region, it could try to rally the likes of Egypt and Iraq to its cause, but its overtures to Pakistan have so far been resisted.
The two Sunni countries have a pact, but Islamabad is concerned that any intervention against Iran will inflame its own Shiite minority.
Denmark: Will help
Roughly 20 per cent of the world’s shipping containers are handled by the Danish company Maersk, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the country’s exports and 15 per cent of its GDP.
Currently, it has ships stranded on both sides of the Hormuz Strait, some unable to reach the open sea and others blocked from coming in to dock.
If Maersk can’t function, neither can the Danish economy, including its generous welfare state. The impact would be felt globally, as Maersk employs more than 100,000 people worldwide and operates more than 700 ships, with annual revenue in excess of £33billion. Quite simply, Maersk cannot be allowed to fail.
Little wonder that Copenhagen is calling for an EU-wide response to the Hormuz crisis, despite the bloc’s opposition to Donald Trump’s actions.
‘We must face the world as it is, not as we want it to be,’ Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said earlier this week, urging the EU to keep an ‘open mind’ on its contribution.
Despite a major fallout with the US last year over Trump’s demands to acquire Greenland, the Danes will have to swallow their pride if they are to offer support to keep the Strait open.
Their navy boasts ten vessels capable of locating and destroying mines.
No wider than the English Channel , this deep-water bottleneck between the United Arab Emirates and Iran was plied by 140 ships every day before February 28
Argentina: Will help
Although its navy has no minesweepers, Argentina has pledged to send ships to the Gulf.
The country’s maverick president, Javier Milei, is currying favour with Washington, possibly with one specific purpose: to win America’s reciprocal support if Argentina renews its claim to the Falkland Islands.
One of Trump’s leading overseas supporters, Marc Zell, a lawyer based in Jerusalem, has urged the US president to reward Milei: ‘In light of the UK’s cowardly refusal to support the US in the Persian Gulf conflict, I think it only appropriate for the Trump administration to consider reversing US policy on the Falklands and support the Argentinian claim.’
Romania: Will help
Its small navy concentrates on defending its Black Sea coast, but Romanian president Nicusor Dan might be willing to spare ships for the Gulf. He has already offered help to the US by allowing access to the country’s airbases for refuelling planes and as a base of operations for surveillance.
Romanian air defences against potential Russian missile attacks are reliant on a US-developed ballistic missile system, Aegis Ashore, set up a decade ago.
UK: Might help
Donald Trump has repeatedly castigated Sir Keir Starmer for failing to send warships. But the UK’s naval capacity is so severely depleted that our minesweeper HMS Middleton was retired from the Gulf in January.
Last night, the Government allowed US forces to use British bases for offensive operations to ‘safeguard international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz’.
In addition, the UK could provide interceptor drones, like those that have successfully blocked Iranian-made Russian drones launched against Ukraine.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said last weekend: ‘There are a range of things that we can do, including autonomous mine-hunting equipment. And that’s something we’re obviously looking at.’
While HMS Middleton departed the region, the UK does have autonomous mine-hunting assets that can operate from its Bahrain naval base. They include the Sweep system, which uses an un-crewed surface vessel, and SeaCat, a pair of autonomous surface vessels with three sets of underwater vehicles that can seek out mines but cannot disable them.
Last night’s new commitment diverged from a joint statement issued on Thursday with France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan that was so blandly non-committal, it said practically nothing: ‘We express our readiness to contribute…We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.’
Finland: Might help
At a meeting in London last Tuesday, Finnish president Alexander Stubb was asked whether Europe might offer help to the US military in exchange for more American assistance against Russia in Ukraine. ‘I think it’s actually a really good idea,’ he said. ‘I’ll talk about it with my colleagues.’
France: Won’t help
President Emmanuel Macron told his Cabinet on Tuesday: ‘We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context.’
French finance minister Roland Lescure was more circumspect: ‘We are willing to do something to free the Strait of Hormuz, provided that this is not a war situation any more. Nobody wants to go across the Strait of Hormuz if there’s a risk of missiles or drones going on your head. We need the conflict to de-escalate.’
Prior to these comments, Mr Trump claimed he rated French support as ‘eight out of 10’, and added: ‘But it’s France. We don’t expect perfect. I think he’s going to help.’
Germany: Won’t help
‘This war has nothing to do with Nato. It’s not Nato’s war,’ declared an emphatic spokesman for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz this week.
‘Nato is a defensive alliance,’ he said pointedly, implying that the US and Israel were not threatened by Iran prior to the war.
But the German standpoint might crumble if soaring oil prices mean European drivers decide this is the moment to ditch the internal combustion engine and switch to electric vehicles (EVs).
That could be the death knell for the German car industry. Despite billions of euros poured into developing EVs, Mercedes, Audi and VW are lagging far behind Chinese innovation, especially in the budget hatchback market.
Italy: Won’t help
PM Giorgia Meloni has been one of Trump’s fiercest European supporters, but the war in Iran is unpopular with the Italian public and she faces an election next year.
Her defence minister Guido Crosetto declared this week that it was ‘not our war’ and that Italy would not be sending military assistance to the Gulf.
The words echoed the EU’s defence chief Kaja Kallas, who said: ‘This is not Europe’s war, but Europe’s interests are directly at stake.’
Japan: Won’t help
Meeting PM Sanae Takaichi in the White House on Thursday, Trump said he expected Japan to ‘step up’. But Takaichi has surprised Trump by her reluctance to render military aid to the US.
Japan’s chief concern is the dual threat of China and North Korea, and it needs guarantees from America that its interests much closer to home will be protected before it gets involved in the Gulf.
Takaichi was willing, though, to deliver tanker-loads of flattery: ‘I firmly believe,’ she said, ‘that it is only you, Donald, who can achieve peace across the world.’
Russia: Pro-Iran
Russia does not need to import oil or gas but Vladimir Putin sees advantage in stirring trouble in the West by stoking the war. The Kremlin is providing Iran with intelligence and satellite imagery.
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China: Pro-Iran
Beijing is feeling the pinch. Their tankers are still transporting a million barrels of oil a day from Iran, but that’s a shortfall of about 40 per cent from pre-war levels of 1.7million daily.
Always cautious in their domestic policies, the Chinese are also stockpiling as much as they can in case the Strait shuts down altogether. That means not only that Chinese consumers are going short, but that exports to neighbours are drying up.
Requests from Vietnam, for example, for aviation fuel are being refused. And in the would-be independent island of Taiwan fuel is running low.
Pakistan: Pro-Iran
The Lorax, a supertanker registered in Pakistan, was given safe passage by Iran last Wednesday, en route to Karachi. That suggests Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif has struck a deal. However, Pakistan – like its ally and sponsor, China – will be paying heavily for the privilege of going through Hormuz.
India: At the mercy of Iran
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in an impossible position. India has stronger links to the West and Israel than almost any other Asian country.
But its population of 1.48billion people, greater even than China’s, is heavily reliant on cheap crops, even more than it needs oil.
That means it needs vast quantities of man-made fertiliser, manufactured using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Consisting chiefly of propane and butane, this is a by-product of crude oil refining, and Iran is its chief source.
Without LPG, India will face a catastrophic food crisis. And it is not the only country: famine on a scale not seen since the 1980s could affect many African nations if fertiliser supplies dry up. It is this unforeseen consequence that could turn out to be the most devastating effect of war with Iran.
South Korea and Taiwan: At the mercy of Iran
Another major by-product from Iran’s oil refineries is helium.
This gas is vital in the production of semi-conductors – a huge export of Taiwan and South Korea, and the basis of all modern electronic devices, including smartphones and computer chips.
To ensure their delicate circuits are produced in sterile conditions, they are manufactured in chambers filled with helium. The gas is also used as a coolant. Without it, a worldwide shortage of semi-conductors would wreak chaos, and leave the economies of Taiwan and South Korea in tatters.
In addition, both countries have been badly hit by fuel shortages and price rises.
Their belligerent neighbours, North Korea and China, might choose this moment of weakness to strike.
Israel: The nightmare scenario
As the war escalates, fears are growing that it could go nuclear. Iran and Russia have claimed that an Israeli missile landed close to the nuclear power station of Bushehr in the south of the Islamic Republic.
It is not known if there were casualties, but the plant is partly staffed by Russian technicians who control the plutonium rods. Israel has its own nuclear power station at Dimona in the Negev desert.
Iran could strike that, causing a Chernobyl-type disaster in the small and heavily populated country. It might even have the capability to explode a ‘dirty bomb’ above Tel Aviv, using nuclear pollutants.
Blast damage would probably be slight but the radioactive fallout would cause panic about long-term illness. Israel, which has its own nuclear missiles, would undoubtedly retaliate.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford.
