NEW DELHI – Two weeks after sudden floods tore through Nepal’s mountain communities and river valleys, the scale of destruction is coming into sharper focus. Entire settlements were inundated, while roads and bridges were ripped away. Authorities estimate about 7,500 homes have been destroyed, another 20,000 require reconstruction, and at least 12 hydropower projects sustained damage. The preliminary loss assessment has reached $2.56 billion — a daunting figure for a country whose total budget for the current fiscal year is $14 billion.
The devastation has struck at a particularly fragile moment for the Himalayan nation. Nepal is still trying to steady itself after a year of political turbulence, including an uprising that brought down the previous government. Now, the new leadership must rebuild critical infrastructure, restore public confidence and strengthen political stability. Beyond the immediate recovery, officials face a longer-term challenge: making Nepal more resilient as climate change intensifies the threat of extreme weather.
“It is a wasteland out there. The rebuilding is not going to be easy,” said Sumnima Udas, a member of Parliament who chairs a committee on international relations and tourism.
Flood disaster delivers an early test for Nepal’s new government
The crisis is among the first major challenges facing 36-year-old Prime Minister Balen Shah, who assumed office in March following months of political uncertainty.
The upheaval began last September, when youth-led protests over corruption and a social media ban spiraled into violence. Security forces opened fire on demonstrators, killing dozens, while government buildings and politicians’ homes were set ablaze. Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned, and the country entered a period of uncertainty under a caretaker government.
Shah, a former mayor of Kathmandu and political outsider, emerged from the unrest as the face of a new generation. His party won a sweeping victory in March, giving him a mandate to overhaul a political system widely blamed for failing to deliver.
Now his government faces a different kind of crisis. It must show that it can deliver competent government while taking on the enormous task of rebuilding after the floods.
So far, it has mobilized the army, police, helicopters and medical teams and coordinated with local authorities on evacuations and relief. Thousands have been rescued, but blocked roads, debris-filled hydropower tunnels and shortages of specialized equipment and trained personnel have hampered efforts to reach remote sites, exposing the limits of Nepal’s emergency response capacity.
Those challenges have been compounded by an administration with little experience managing a crisis of this scale, with many of its leaders new to national government.
Guna Raj Luitel, editor of Kathmandu-based The Diplomat Nepal magazine, said the government’s lack of experience had left it ill-equipped to respond to a catastrophe of this magnitude.
“Nepal is a disaster-prone country, but we have failed to learn from the past,” he said.
Rebuilding will be a daunting challenge and strain Nepal’s resources
By Tuesday, more than 1,300 people had been reported dead in Nepal and Tibet, with about 5,000 still missing. While search and rescue operations continue, Nepal will need more than emergency help.
Udas, the lawmaker, said Nepal requires stronger disaster warning systems and infrastructure built for increasingly volatile conditions. It may also have to reconsider where roads, settlements and hydropower projects are built to reduce the risk of repeating the same losses, she said.
Disaster authorities’ preliminary damage estimate of $2.56 billion is nearly a fifth of Nepal’s annual government budget of about $14 billion. The full cost of rebuilding has yet to be calculated, though some estimates put it at $4 billion to $5 billion.
The disruption is likely to weigh on tourism, one of Nepal’s economic lifelines, with consequences that could extend well beyond the immediate crisis for communities that depend on the tourism season for much of their income.
The floods also hit a key hydropower corridor that accounts for about 10% of Nepal’s electricity generation, said Uttam Bhlon, vice president of Nepal’s Independent Power Producers’ Association. Including projects under construction, the corridor represents about 20% of the country’s generation capacity, he said.
The reconstruction bill will add to the demands on a new government already under pressure to fund schools, hospitals, jobs and new investment.
Nepal has sought international assistance, including from the United Nations, while countries and aid groups have provided emergency supplies, rescue expertise and other support. But the government says it will need much more international backing for the larger task of rebuilding.
Luitel, the magazine editor, said developed countries should do more to support Nepal, arguing that it cannot shoulder the cost of the disaster alone. He said wealthier nations have a responsibility to help vulnerable countries cope with increasingly severe disasters linked to climate change.
“Nepal can’t bear the cost alone,” he said.
Nepal faces growing risks from a changing climate
The science behind the disaster is still unclear. Researchers believe a high-altitude slope collapse involving rock and glacial ice sent an enormous volume of debris downstream, but they have cautioned against drawing a direct line to climate change.
The changing landscape is harder to ignore.
The Himalayas are warming rapidly, glaciers are retreating and rainfall and snowfall patterns are shifting. Nepal is especially vulnerable because much of its population and infrastructure sits in steep valleys below unstable mountain slopes.
Yet Nepal has done little to drive the warming behind those changes. The World Bank estimates that the country produces about 0.1% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, even as it remains highly exposed to climate-related hazards.
Udas said that imbalance has become one of Nepal’s central challenges.
She said the country has taken steps to reduce its environmental footprint, including nearly doubling its forest cover over the past three decades, generating most of its electricity from clean sources and doing well in electric-vehicle adoption. But those efforts cannot shield the country from changes unfolding across the Himalayas, she said.
That is why, Udas said, industrialized countries should take greater responsibility for helping Nepal prepare for and recover from climate-related disasters.
“This is not them versus us,” she said. “This is about humanity and the planet.”
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Associated Press journalists Binaj Gurubacharya and Shristi Kafle in Kathmandu, Nepal, contributed to this report.
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