The National Hurricane Center highlighted a robust tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa.

Some slow development is possible with this system as it moves north-northwestward across the eastern and central Atlantic next week.

The Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 20% chance for development over the next seven days.

There is some uncertainty in the disturbance’s long-term life. It will likely struggle leading up to the Caribbean islands as the environment is only marginally conducive for development.

The European ensembles pictured above show a wide range of outcomes through Aug. 18. Most of the 51 members start to bend the entity out to sea, but with high pressure building, this will be something to watch.

After that, there is a question if the storm continues west or turns safely out to sea.

It is important to not latch on to single model runs this far out as model guidance will struggle with the many meteorological factors going into the storm’s strength and track.

Computer forecasts have been bullish with a couple of African waves this season, but to this point have not come into fruition.

With many questions on the track and development of this system, this wave is merely something to watch as we head into next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, 96L remains weak and unorganized. It is expected to drift into more favorable conditions and a tropical depression is possible over the weekend.

The next named storm of the 2025 hurricane season is Erin.