Students at UC Santa Barbara are once again settling into homes along a fast-eroding California bluff, even as a strong El Niño forecast raises the prospect of intense rain and powerful surf—conditions that could send more sections of the cliff tumbling into the Pacific.
Del Playa Drive is bustling as the fall quarter begins. Balconies and yards are filling with students, vehicles are packed two or three deep in driveways, and moving boxes sit beside overflowing dumpsters.
For renters whose homes sit nearest the bluff, however, the lively scene comes with an unsettling reality: the land beneath them is steadily disappearing.
“Erosion’s always kind of in the back of your mind,” one tenant told The Santa Barbara Independent.
Another student said she has seen friends lose portions of their backyards during the years since she began college.
“It’s the only one you can’t see from the beach. All the others are just right by the cliff,” she told The Independent.
The approaching El Niño could intensify the strain on the already unstable shoreline.
Rainwater can seep through Isla Vista’s sandy upper layers, reaching cracks in the weaker mudstone and shale beneath them.
At the same time, elevated tides and storm-generated waves can batter the bluff at its base from the ocean.
Larry Gurrola, an engineering consulting geologist who has spent more than three decades examining cliff erosion, explained how the bluff can fail when those forces overwhelm it.
“It’s almost like a glacier collapsing sometimes, where these blocks collapse out and then break up on the beach,” Gurrola told the outlet.
Del Playa’s homes have already suffered the consequences of the shifting coastline.
In February 2024, a large collapse on the 6700 block prompted the evacuation of 45 tenants after a balcony cracked and fell away.
Two months later, a separate balcony on the 6600 block dropped into the ocean.
Geologists say relocation efforts may provide only a temporary reprieve. Conservative projections estimate the bluff could retreat another 25 feet over the next 50 years.