Andy Burnham arrived in Liverpool on Saturday for his first Labour conference as party leader, projecting a noticeably more assured and upbeat presence than Keir Starmer.
The stiff, mechanical manner associated with his technocratic predecessor was nowhere to be seen. Instead, Burnham appeared every inch the lifelong Labour man—glad to have returned from his uneasy appearance on the international stage alongside Donald Trump and eager to relax among enthusiastic party activists.
He joined his wife, Marie-France van Heel, for a photoshoot, looking comfortable in a suede bomber jacket, T-shirt, jeans and £110 Adidas trainers. Smiling, he joked that he loved “coming to Liverpool on a Saturday – normally to support the Blues…”
He then added: “But we’re all supporting the Reds today, aren’t we?” The predictable gag drew cheers from the Labour faithful.
Yet behind the relaxed clothes and easygoing manner is a leader acutely aware that he is steering a deeply fractured party. Many Labour MPs are already contemplating what a failure in No 10 might mean, while the party continues to struggle with Britain’s mounting crises and anxiety over the possibility of a snap general election.
For all the differences between Burnham and Sir Keir, the two leaders share a precarious predicament. Both are effectively carrying a Ming vase along a treacherous path, where one wrong step could bring everything crashing down.
Burnham’s declaration on Friday that he had no intention of calling an early election may have reassured backbenchers in vulnerable marginal constituencies. But government insiders insisted on Saturday that preparations for a return to the country were still moving ahead at full speed.
They pointed to the forthcoming “ten-year plan” as the clearest indication. Burnham unveiled the proposal on the steps of No 10, saying it would “lay out a path from where we are now to where I believe we all want Britain to be”.
Arriving in Liverpool on September 26 for his first Labour conference as leader, Andy Burnham cut a more confident and optimistic figure than Keir Starmer, writes Christian Calgie
Labour sources, however, have described the document as “nothing but a Trojan horse for an early election”, claiming that November will effectively serve as the moment when Burnham unveils his manifesto.
That assessment mirrors Kemi Badenoch’s forecast. Last week, the Conservative leader predicted a December election and labelled Burnham a “gambler”.
Senior Labour figures also expect No 10 to argue that the previous manifesto’s red lines have prevented progress on key pledges, including efforts to ease the cost-of-living crisis. They believe November’s ten-year plan will go well beyond Sir Keir’s commitments to voters—including on Brexit—leaving Burnham to seek a new mandate.
Louise Haigh, the outspoken Deputy Prime Minister in all but title, is reportedly already acting as the Prime Minister’s general election campaign manager. Meanwhile, Lord Alli—whose name became embroiled in the “glasses for passes” cronyism controversy during Sir Keir’s leadership—is said to be bringing together 20 donors to build Labour’s election fund.
Within Labour, there is little expectation that Burnham will face a difficult conference this week.
Saturday’s Cabinet clash over migration and former minister Peter Kyle’s damaging intervention on economic growth may have caused trouble, but Burnham’s fiercest critics recognise that Liverpool is not the place to attempt a public challenge to his authority.
That does not guarantee a completely trouble-free conference. Internal opponents warn that trade unions are arriving with extensive demands and could force votes committing Labour to further spending promises without identifying how they would be funded.
Previous Labour leaders often managed to persuade union leaders to tone down such confrontational tactics. This year, multiple sources claimed, Burnham had been unable to secure a similar compromise.
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One delegate told The Mail on Sunday: “I think it’s going to be spend, spend, spend. Delegates are going to think that because there’s a new leader we can spend loads of money we don’t have.”
Another senior party official said: “Some of the smaller unions are demanding things, and No 10 aren’t brave enough to say ‘no’. Burnham’s not got the balls or the skill to face down the unions.”
Burnham’s most serious challenges, however, are developing in Westminster, where competing Labour factions are once again assembling their own networks of influence before the Budget.
Darren Jones, Sir Keir’s right-hand man who was ousted by Burnham and left smarting on the backbenches, has already formed a new grouping of disgruntled Starmerites and fiscal hawks.
A top insider revealed that its numbers are already around 100-strong, including ministers.
Rachel Reeves is among those to have joined the rebels, marking her return to the Westminster fray, with one Whips Office source branding her still ‘sore’ from her sacking as Chancellor.
While Jones insists his legion of disgruntled MPs is merely about ensuring the party remains electable ahead of the next election, whenever it may be, one member let the cat out of the bag when telling this paper that it is, in fact, a back-up vehicle ‘for when it all goes wrong for Burnham, [so we] have a group ready to pounce’.
Anticipating criticism from supporters of Burnham, they pointedly compared it to Haigh’s accidental confession in July that she and others had been plotting his ascension to the top job ‘for at least the last year’.
Downing Street is concerned, with one party manager warning it is ‘designed to undermine [us]’.
There are plenty who view Jones’s manoeuvres with loathing, of course, articulated by one government source who said the Bristol North West MP was ‘clearly not in a good place at the moment’.
Talk about an early election will persist, not because Burnham desires one, but because so many at the heart of his operation believe they will be backed into a corner over the coming months.
The Budget may well force the Government to sell some uncomfortable choices, but it is expected to be a low-key event, with plenty of devolution pledges to disguise the lack of radical change from the previous administration’s agenda.
What Downing Street will be more worried about is next year’s spending review, which will at long last reveal just how broke the country is, and force Labour MPs to finally commit to the welfare cuts they so detest.
Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves ‘backloaded’ a lot of the spending cuts, meaning most of the difficult decisions would come towards the end of his expected five-year term.
One MP said Labour’s Lefty MPs are ‘lying in wait’ if Burnham slashes departmental spending, adding that welfare cuts will once again ‘trigger a Left-wing revolt’.
The new PM may survive Liverpool, but he’s set for a brutal reality check back in Westminster.