Taiwan Analysts: Trump-Xi Summit Brought No Policy Shift, but Real Test Lies Ahead

TAIPEI — Taiwan was closely monitoring the Trump-Xi summit for any indication that Washington might adjust its approach to the island as President Donald Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit last week.

The meeting drew particular attention in Taiwan, which regularly faces military and political pressure from Beijing. At a Saturday forum hosted by the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) in Taipei, academics, a retired U.S. military officer and Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister examined the implications of the third Trump-Xi meeting of Trump’s current term. The prevailing view was that U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unlikely to change.

“Both of them got what they want and what they need,” Kuo Yu-jen, INPR’s vice president and a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University’s Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, told News Media. Trump could highlight economic gains from his negotiations with Xi, while Xi could return to Beijing with the prestige of a high-profile welcome in Washington, Kuo said. He dismissed speculation that Trump had “sold out” Taiwan as an overstatement.

As anticipated, Xi reportedly urged Trump to declare that the United States opposes Taiwan independence. Washington has traditionally used more carefully worded language, saying it does not support Taiwan independence. To the relief of Taiwanese officials, Trump retained that distinction.

In an exclusive interview with News Media after the forum, Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister François Wu said Beijing is seeking more than a shift in diplomatic phrasing. China wants the international community to treat Taiwan as an internal Chinese matter, Wu said. If that position gains acceptance, Beijing could argue that other nations have no legitimate role in responding to Chinese actions against the island.

“The so-called independence of Taiwan is just an issue made specifically by the Chinese government,” Wu said. Taiwan already has an elected president and government, a defined territory and its own currency, he noted. “We just don’t need to declare any independence. We are a sovereign country.”

Before Trump’s May visit to China, Wu had warned against Taiwan becoming a bargaining chip. He told Bloomberg that Taiwan’s greatest fear was being “put on the menu” during discussions between Xi and Trump.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Xi had pressed Trump to maintain the “correct position” of opposing Taiwan independence. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry responded on a public holiday, rejecting Beijing’s claims and reiterating the island’s position on its sovereignty.

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The White House account of Xi’s visit outlined no alteration to U.S. Taiwan policy. Instead, it highlighted improved tariff treatment covering US$30 billion in goods moving in each direction, the creation of an AI incident communication channel and American concerns over China’s supplies of rare earths and other critical minerals.

Even so, the summit left Taiwan wondering what Xi and Trump may have discussed privately. Analysts said any behind-the-scenes understanding involving Taiwan would likely emerge only through decisions made in the months ahead. Taipei is awaiting Trump’s approval of additional arms sales, visits by senior U.S. officials and a possible transit stop in the United States by Taiwan’s president. Beijing opposes each of those steps, leaving Trump to weigh ties with China against support for Taiwan and his broader political priorities.

Dong Li-wen, executive director of the government-funded Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, said the two leaders appear to share an approach of postponing the most difficult decisions in the hope that conditions will eventually shift. Dong described this as a long-range strategy for Xi but a short-term maneuver for Trump. Continued talks may allow both governments to set aside disputes they cannot resolve, he said, but their fundamental rivalry remains intact.

The dispute over Taiwan’s status dates back nearly eight decades. Beijing claims the island as part of China, although the People’s Republic of China has never governed Taiwan. The Republic of China government moved to the island in 1949 after Chinese Nationalist forces lost the civil war to Mao Zedong’s Communist forces.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s 1999 Resolution on Taiwan’s Future identifies Taiwan as a sovereign, independent state known under its current constitution as the Republic of China. Taiwan’s democratically elected presidents have expressed a similar view in interviews with international outlets, including Lee Teng-hui to The Washington Post in 1997, Chen Shui-bian to the BBC in 2010, Ma Ying-jeou to CNN in 2010 and Tsai Ing-wen to the BBC in 2020. President William Lai Ching-te made the same argument in a 2024 interview with Time, adding that the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to one another.

That arrangement, which effectively leaves Taiwan operating as an independent state, is the status quo Taipei intends to preserve, Wu said. Xi departed Washington after restating Beijing’s demands, while analysts at the forum said the real test of any impact on U.S. policy would come through future decisions on arms sales and related matters. Some predicted that weapons packages could be reduced in size or divided into separate agreements.

Ross Darrell Feingold, a political analyst and assistant professor in Tamkang University’s Department of Diplomacy and International Relations, told News Media that Taiwan’s domestic political calendar could also shape U.S. choices. Local elections are scheduled for November, followed by presidential and legislative elections in January 2028. “Although the U.S. is likely to back President Lai’s re-election,” Feingold said, approving arms sales, visits by Trump administration officials or Lai’s proposed U.S. transit stop would have to be balanced against the appearance of direct election interference and the “inevitable anger from China.”