Nearly 4,000 migrants are currently living in camps in northern France as they wait for an opportunity to cross the English Channel to Britain in small boats—roughly twice the usual number.
Duncan Capps, the Home Office’s Border Security Commander, told MPs that French officials estimate around 3,800 people are staying in camps between Calais and Dunkirk.
He also told the Commons Home Affairs Select Committee that migrants commonly make “seven or eight” attempts before successfully reaching the UK.
Asked how many people were waiting to cross the Channel, Mr Capps said: “I think the French estimate at the moment is that there is almost 3,800 people between those two camps.”
“Previously it was broadly about 2,000 between them.
“So our understanding now from our French partners we work with closely is almost double what we would normally expect.”
He said the unusually high numbers reflected both the scale of the migrant presence and the growing difficulty of making the crossing from the Calais-Dunkirk coastline.
“There are a lot of people in the camps at the moment, which I think is bad in one respect because a lot of people are there but it also represents the fact that the French are making it very difficult, particularly in the Dunkirk-Calais area, to get across,” he said.
Migrants board a smugglers’ dinghy off a beach near Boulogne, northern France, earlier this month
Mr Capps added that the strategy was to make Channel smuggling financially and operationally unviable by increasing the risks of acquiring boats and engines, being intercepted and receiving a prison sentence.
The people waiting to depart are mainly single men. The most frequently recorded nationalities are Eritrean, Sudanese, Somali, Ethiopian and Afghan, he said.
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Small boat crossings have fallen by 43 per cent compared with the same period last year, with just under 21,000 people making the journey so far this year.
Rob Jones, director general of operations at the National Crime Agency, said the growing number of migrants in northern France was “not a good thing”, indicating strong demand but also showing that people were struggling to reach the UK.
Border Security Commander Duncan Capps, pictured left, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham inspect a surveillance drone at HM Coastguard Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centre, in Dover, Kent, in August
He said the reduction in crossings suggested that the trafficking gangs’ business model was “starting to shake”. The NCA, he added, is “actively working” to predict how smugglers could adapt their methods.
The disclosure that migrants may attempt the crossing seven or eight times is likely to raise further questions about the Home Office’s claim that more than 50,000 small boat crossings had been prevented since the 2024 General Election.
Migrants intercepted by French beach patrols are not detained, meaning they remain free to make another attempt.
As a result, the Home Office total of 50,000 prevented crossings could include some individuals as many as eight times.
Mr Capps also revealed that two small boats reached the UK without being intercepted by Border Force last month. Both crossings took place on “busy days” in the Channel, and the vessels were not detected until they were around 2.5 miles (4km) from the British coast.
By that point, he said, there had been no opportunity to send Home Office vessels to intercept them in the Channel.
The typical charges smuggling gangs demand for an illegal crossing have ‘broadly come down’ to £840 to £1,700 (1,000 to 2,000 euros) a head, Mr Capps said.
Mr Jones said the unsafe dinghies used by traffickers typically cost them about £14,000.