The Israeli military began a major 48-hour exercise Sunday designed to prepare for surprise border breaches and ground incursions in northern and central Israel, deploying several divisions along with air force units as regional tensions continue to rise.
The drills prompted one Israeli security expert to draw comparisons with the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria conducted military exercises that concealed preparations for a surprise assault. He cautioned that the current escalation could produce what he called a “dangerous miscalculation.”
According to the Israel Defense Forces, the operation includes the Northern Command’s 210th Division, the West Bank Division, and the Central Command’s 98th and 96th divisions, supported by the Israeli Air Force.
The exercise is not directed at Iran itself, but at Iranian proxies and other allies positioned along Israel’s borders, analysts said. ( Jalaa MAREY / AFP via Getty Images)
The exercise comes shortly before Israel’s Oct. 27 elections. The IDF said it is intended to “maintain the forces’ alertness and readiness, strengthen the ability to defend communities, and make full use of aerial capabilities for defense in the area.”
The military said Friday that participating troops would rehearse “a variety of scenarios, including a surprise attack and infiltration into Israeli territory by air and land.” The training incorporates lessons from the Hamas-led assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
“This exercise is mostly about non-state actors with or without Iranian support,” Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam told News Media.
“It’s aimed at those in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who might try to infiltrate into Israel or send ground raids. Some are supported by Iran; others are not. It could be planned by Iran or be a local initiative.”
Iranian missiles are shown targeting Israel during the recent conflict. (Pool via WANA/Reuters)
“This is a massive exercise, the biggest one in recent years, aimed at protecting the borders,” said Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defense.
“It’s all about making sure that election day on October 27 will run smoothly. It’s also a message to Iran and others: don’t try to provoke us during election day, so nothing will be disrupted.”
The Israeli maneuvers came days after a show of force by Tehran, when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired approximately 30 ballistic missiles from two distinct weapons classes, according to reports.
The live-fire demonstration underscored Iran’s ability to launch strikes, triggered fresh warnings for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and led Israel to raise its alert level while retaining maximum readiness for a targeted attack on Iran.
The IDF is rehearsing surprise attacks and infiltration attempts, drawing on lessons from the Oct. 7, 2023, assault. (Amir Levy/Getty Images)
During a Wednesday visit to the IDF’s Central Command, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said the possibility of a broader escalation was increasing.
“Given the numerous warnings across all fronts and the sensitivity of the current period, the potential for escalation has increased,” Zamir said.
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“To ensure better operational control on the ground, we have reinforced our troop deployments across all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen security and stability.”
“Part of mutual deterrence: a few days ago, Iran had their own pretty big exercise, and that was actually more intimidating as far as Israel is concerned because they launched missiles and prepared for a war with Israel,” Eilam said.
“This exercise on Sunday and Monday is against Iran’s proxies and allies at the border of Israel.”
The Sunday drills also followed an Oct. 19 operation in which Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers traveled 800 miles through Syrian and Iraqi airspace to the Iranian border.
An Israeli fighter jet takes off for strikes in Tehran. (IDF)
Washington was notified in advance and viewed the maneuver as a non-kinetic show of force following the postponement of a broader strike package earlier in the month.
Despite the deterrence signals, Eilam warned that large-scale military exercises carry the “risk of miscalculation” and particularly when troop movements could be mistaken for preparations for an attack.
“During the Cold War, every time the Soviet Union or NATO carried out a major drill, having so many troops in the field meant they might attack if that was the intention,” Eilam said.
He pointed to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria used military exercises to help conceal troop buildups along Israel’s borders.
Israeli intelligence largely dismissed the movements as routine drills, allowing the two countries to achieve strategic surprise when they launched a coordinated, two-front attack on Yom Kippur.
Military personnel perform during a military parade in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 8, 2025. (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
“The classic example in Israel is 1973, when Egypt and Syria conducted a major exercise just before the war that turned into the actual attack,” the analyst said.
“Israel and Iran are now watching each other very closely and both sides suspect the other might strike first,” Eilam added before stating that there is the chance of what they call “miscalculation — that each side suspects the other and strikes first by mistake.”
“It’s all about sending messages to each other.”
“It remains uncertain whether there will eventually be an Israeli attack on Iran because it depends on U.S. authorization,” Eilam concluded.
“Right now, both sides are signaling: ‘We are ready, don’t mess with us, but we don’t want to start a war right now.'”