Netanyahu Alleges Fraud as Arab Parties Make Record Gains and Emerge as Potential Israeli Coalition Kingmakers

Israel’s two Arab parties could play a decisive role in determining the country’s next prime minister and government. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to block that possibility after accusing Arab polling stations of serious criminal violations during the election.

Preliminary results indicated that the two parties would win a combined 19 Knesset seats. Neither Netanyahu’s Likud-led right-wing bloc nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist bloc appeared to have reached the 61 seats required to form a parliamentary majority.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu wrote on X that Israel’s election had been “stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state.” He alleged serious offenses, including bribery, threats, violence, forgery and the use of banned software to mobilize voters.

“The Likud party is transferring to the police, the Shin Bet, and the Central Elections Committee hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence regarding election theft in many Arab polling stations,” he wrote.

Netanyahu cited claims that thousands of envelopes containing cash and Ra’am ballot slips had been distributed, along with allegations of threats and violence against polling station workers, multiple ballots cast behind voting curtains, voting under several identities, mismatches between ballot-envelope totals and voter numbers, the use of prohibited voter-mobilization software and other violations.

“We demand from the police and the Shin Bet a thorough investigation into the election theft by the Arab parties and the full prosecution of the criminals. We demand from the Central Elections Committee an immediate response to investigate these criminal offenses that have severely damaged the integrity of the elections in Israel and the election results,” he added. 

The Joint List, one of the Arab political alliances, unites three parties: Hadash, a predominantly Arab-Jewish left-wing movement with roots in Israel’s communist tradition, and the Arab nationalist parties Ta’al and Balad. With more than 90% of ballots counted, the alliance was projected to secure 12 seats.

The United Arab List, or Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas and affiliated with the Southern Branch of Israel’s Islamic Movement, was projected to win seven seats.

Arab citizens account for roughly 21% of Israel’s population. Voter turnout in the election reached a near-record level of between 75% and 80%.

“They are a political force to be reckoned with,” Dahlia Scheindlin, a former policy fellow at the Mitvim Institute and a senior analyst at Haaretz, told News Media.

Scheindlin said Netanyahu built his campaign around the argument that the opposition was willing to form a government reliant on Arab parties’ support. He has argued that such a government would pave the way for a Palestinian state that could become a terror state and eventually lead to Israel’s destruction.

“This is the most consistent message, and he never stopped saying it, including on election day,” she said.

According to Scheindlin, the issue became so politically sensitive that leading Zionist opposition parties promised not to cooperate with the Arab parties.

“They have sworn they would not build a coalition that depends on Arab votes, either from within the coalition or from outside it. If they receive any help, they will have to break that promise,” she added.

Scheindlin said it was not impossible, although highly unlikely, that Netanyahu could approach one of the Arab parties to discuss potential cooperation.

Dr. Arik Rudnitzky, a researcher with the Israel Democracy Institute’s Arab Society in Israel Program, said Arab parties had traditionally remained in opposition rather than joining governing coalitions.

During the governments of Yitzhak Rabin and, later, Shimon Peres in the 1990s, Arab parties provided a parliamentary safety net from outside the coalition. This enabled the government to remain in office and complete its term even after it effectively became a minority government amid opposition to the Oslo Accords, as the Haredi Shas party left the government.

“Historically, Arab parties were always in the opposition for many reasons. It was quite uncommon to believe Arab parties could [support] the government. It’s a novelty of recent years, plus the fact that their political strength in terms of the number of seats was not as significant as it is today,” Rudnitzky said.

Demographic changes alone do not explain the Arab parties’ growing political strength, Rudnitzky said; shifting voting patterns have also played a role.

“In the past, Arab voters supported both Arab and Jewish parties. In the 1980s and 1990s, approximately half voted for Jewish parties,” he continued.

Rudnitzky said historical developments, the impact of the Oslo Accords and the entry of new Arab representatives into the Knesset contributed to a gradual shift away from Jewish parties, with more Arab voters turning to Arab parties.

“Today, we can say that between 85% and 90% of Arab voters support Arab parties. This is the main reason for their increased political strength,” he added.

Any support Arab parties might provide to a prospective coalition would come in exchange for political concessions, Rudnitzky said. Their demands would likely include a government decision and a plan to combat crime in Arab communities, as well as a new socioeconomic development plan for the Arab sector involving budget allocations.

Ultimately, he said, such arrangements would involve allocating public goods and resources in exchange for political support. “There is no free lunch in politics. Every collaboration, either within a coalition or from the outside, has its political price.”

Scheindlin noted that while the Joint List would not be invited to join a governing coalition — and its members would not want to do so anyway — Mansour Abbas and his United Arab List have pursued a different, more controversial approach. The party has accepted Israel as a Jewish state and seeks to improve the lives of Arab citizens within that framework, she said.

“They are expecting equality as citizens. They accepted Israel’s identity and are willing to work within that framework to improve the lives of their citizens. They are the only ones who have a chance of being invited into a coalition, as they were in 2021,” she said.

In September, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) voted to disqualify the Joint List and the United Arab list from competing in the Oct. 27 elections. On Oct. 2, Israel’s Supreme Court overturned the CEC’s decisions against both parties.

Section 7A of the Basic Law: The Knesset bars candidates who deny Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state, incite to racism, or support the armed struggle of an enemy state or terrorist organization against Israel from participating in Knesset elections.

Martin Sherman, founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies, told News Media that Arab parties in Israel are essentially illegal and should be barred from participating in elections.

“They have different social agendas, perhaps, but on the political level, they all oppose Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. One can only hope that politicians in Israel will realize that and that political ambitions and animosity toward Netanyahu will not prevail,” he said.

One former Israeli diplomat noted the irony and said it was a good teaching moment for those who don’t understand the country. “Arab Israelis voted in huge numbers and, according to the exit polls, won more Knesset seats than ever before. That is the answer to the ridiculously ignorant accusation that Israel is a supposed ‘apartheid’ state,” Shahar Azani, veteran israeli diplomat and former spokesperson of Israel’s consulate in New York, told News Media.

He added, “Arab citizens are shaping the government and taking part in the Jewish state’s democratic celebration, and we welcome it. But with great power comes great responsibility: they must now take the next step and reject the extremist positions some voiced as soon as the results came in, that would alienate them from Israel’s Jewish majority.”