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HomeUSTrump’s Ill-Prepared Midterm Strategy Missed Key Warning Signs

Trump’s Ill-Prepared Midterm Strategy Missed Key Warning Signs

Donald Trump’s inner circle grew increasingly frustrated with the President before the midterm elections, as voters soured on the war in Iran and he remained focused on the White House ballroom, according to a bombshell report.

The Republican Party is reeling after an historic blue wave swept across the country on Tuesday, with Democrats capturing both the House and Senate by substantial margins.

The blame game is now underway, with Trump pointing the finger at the candidates themselves. But a New York Times report says members of Trump’s midterm strategy team had become frustrated with the President.

Republican officials complained that Trump waited far too long to authorize spending from his $400 million campaign war chest.

Trump referred to the funds—which came from continued fundraising after the 2024 election—as “my money.” Senate strategists were reportedly still unable to secure his approval to spend it as late as August.

One official said they were “shocked at how ill-prepared they were.” By the time Trump released the money, Republicans had to pay considerably more for advertising than Democrats, who had reserved airtime earlier.

An expert said advance ad purchases by left-leaning groups meant Trump’s super PAC had to spend four times as much as leading Democratic super PACs. In Alaska alone, it received 70 percent fewer ads for that money.

The Trump super PAC paid $30,000 for an evening-news spot that Democrats had secured for just $2,700 by booking it much earlier.

Members of Donald Trump's inner circle expressed frustration with the President's focus heading into the midterms, candidate selection and poorly spent campaign funds

Members of Donald Trump’s inner circle reportedly questioned his focus, candidate choices and handling of campaign funds before the midterms

James Blair, the man tasked with running the President's midterm strategy, was also behind the President's ill-fated redistricting push

James Blair, who was responsible for overseeing the President’s midterm strategy, also promoted Trump’s unsuccessful redistricting effort

Advisers said Trump’s level of interest in the election shifted dramatically. On some days, he stressed that he would do “anything” to win the midterms.

On other days, however, Trump appeared more interested in how much more popular he was than the candidates he had personally endorsed.

“It says something very nice about me that they just can’t win without me,” he reportedly told aides.

Trump’s candidate choices were another source of concern for his political team.

Michael Whatley in North Carolina, Darline Graham in South Carolina and, above all, Ken Paxton in Texas were viewed as particularly poor selections.

“I have seen the enemy and it is us,” said James Blair, the official overseeing the President’s midterm strategy.

“In many places,” added Tony Fabrizio, the President’s chief pollster.

Throughout 2026, Trump also pursued policies that insiders feared could hand the elections to Democrats.

Tony Fabrizio, the President's top pollster, saw red flags regarding the Iran War in focus groups he conducted

Tony Fabrizio, the President’s top pollster, identified warning signs about the Iran war in focus groups

Candidate selection was another aspect of the midterm strategy questioned by Trump's team. Michael Whatley of North Carolina, Darline Graham of South Carolina, and especially Ken Paxton (pictured) in Texas were seen as brutal choices

Trump’s team also questioned his candidate selections, including Michael Whatley of North Carolina, Darline Graham of South Carolina and Ken Paxton of Texas, pictured

One adviser said the Iran war was a serious misstep on several fronts. Fabrizio conducted polling on the conflict, but the President largely disregarded the findings.

JD Vance negotiated a ceasefire in June, and polling showed that voters favored the pause in fighting by 41 points. In addition, 67 percent believed it could help bring down gas prices.

The truce did not last, however, and the Iran war continued into its ninth month. Hawkish Republicans, including Ted Cruz, were blamed for helping keep Trump committed to the strikes.

In Fabrizio’s focus groups, voters said Trump had broken his promise to avoid foreign wars. They also said they did not understand why the United States was fighting in Iran.

Members of Trump’s powerful MAGA base told pollsters that ending the war and bringing inflation under control were the two steps that could bring them back to the polls.

Senior members of Trump’s staff also tried to persuade him to take a softer position on immigration, particularly after ICE shootings in Minnesota earlier in the year.

The dispute played out over several months between Chief of Staff “Ice Queen” Susie Wiles and Stephen Miller, one of the chief architects of Trump’s immigration policy.

Senior strategists believed the shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti had transformed immigration from a political strength for Trump into a liability.

Fabrizio offered Trump an offramp in June when JD Vance (pictured) negotiated a ceasefire, which his polling showed was favored by 41 points with voters who knew about and 67 percent saw it as potentially lowering gas prices

Fabrizio presented Trump with a possible off-ramp in June, when JD Vance, pictured, negotiated a ceasefire that polling showed voters favored by 41 points; 67 percent believed it could reduce gas prices

Key members of Trump's staff attempted to get him to moderate on immigration, particularly after the ICE shootings in Minnesota earlier in the year. The battle was largely fought over months between Chief of Staff 'ice queen' Susie Wiles (pictured) and Stephen Miller

Trump aides urged him to moderate his immigration stance after the ICE shootings in Minnesota. The dispute reportedly pitted Chief of Staff “Ice Queen” Susie Wiles, pictured, against Stephen Miller

The President reportedly asked one adviser: “If we never went into Iran, what do you think would happen in the midterms?”

Despite those warnings, some of Trump’s closest allies believed his summer focus on White House renovation projects was alienating voters.

Trump repeatedly promoted plans for a new White House ballroom and a public golf course in Washington instead of concentrating on issues that mattered to voters.

The $5,000 “Trump dividend” was announced at the Republican midterm convention without most members of the President’s inner circle being consulted.

Blair was also accused of being responsible for another midterm setback: the redistricting strategy.

While still working at the White House in 2025, Blair presented Trump with a plan to create more Republican-friendly districts in red states.

When presented with the proposal, Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries reportedly responded with an expletive: “You’ve got to be f***ing kidding me.”

Democrats ultimately avoided much of the impact of the redistricting effort by recruiting strong candidates in reshaped districts and responding with maps of their own in California, gaining five additional seats.

Trump consistently promoted the new White House Ballroom and his attempt to create a public golf course in Washington rather than focusing on key issues

Trump repeatedly highlighted plans for a new White House ballroom and a public golf course in Washington instead of focusing on key political issues

During a private video call held a week before the election, Blair appeared to anticipate a defeat.

“I’m getting my affairs in order. I suggest everybody else do the same,” he said. He then joked with Fabrizio that they might “get asylum in Israel” to avoid the Democratic lawfare he expected to follow.

The Daily Mail has contacted the White House for comment.

Hours after Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress in one of the most painful midterm defeats in modern political history, Trump called Fox News late Tuesday night and did something highly unusual: He praised his opponents.

“Democrats did a good job,” he said. “They fought hard.”

He told The Times that he was fully prepared to accept the result and would prefer to work out deals with Democrats during his final two years in office rather than spend that period vetoing their bills.

By Wednesday morning, Trump was at the construction site of his new ballroom, answering questions as though the defeat belonged to someone else.

He again insisted that he had not been on the ballot, despite asking voters to treat the election as a referendum on him. He also said he had no intention of changing his Cabinet because the results had nothing to do with his administration.

Behind the ballroom show of confidence, however, Trump was making calls—and looking for someone to blame.

After Republican operatives singled out Wiles and even Secretary of State Marco Rubio as possible scapegoats, Trump appeared—after only a few hours of sleep—to focus on another target.

According to a White House insider familiar with the President’s calls, and two other sources who confirmed the account, Trump contacted several close advisers and asked whether Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should remain in his post.

Vice President JD Vance did not wait to assign blame, pointing directly to the Iran war in a statement Wednesday morning that stopped just short of implicating the President.

Vance wrote: “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”

Hegseth has not made a public statement since the midterm results.

By early Thursday morning, Democrats had secured 240 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 seats in the Senate.

Those totals are more than enough to give Democrats control of both chambers, with additional races expected to be called for the party in the coming days, including potentially shocking Senate victories in Mississippi and Alaska.