WELLINGTON – New Zealanders may not know who will govern for several weeks after Saturday’s election produced no clear winner. Neither the right nor the left secured an outright majority, leaving both sides facing difficult negotiations to assemble a government with the slimmest of margins.
The closest election in years delivered a sharp setback for the two parties that have traditionally dominated New Zealand politics: Christopher Luxon’s center-right National Party and the center-left Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins. Voters boosted smaller parties on both sides of the political spectrum, giving them greater leverage as National and Labour seek coalition partners and try to win policy concessions from increasingly powerful allies.
The stalemate was fueled in part by voters’ frustration with New Zealand’s economic difficulties and a lack of enthusiasm for either Luxon or Hipkins. Many instead backed Opportunity, a new political group entering Parliament for the first time in years. Led by 38-year-old business consultant and political newcomer Qiulae Wong, the party is aligned with neither major bloc, and Wong has said she would be willing to work with either side to form a government.
Opportunity’s platform of evidence-based centrism and less partisan politics won the party seven seats based on Saturday’s results — enough to complicate an otherwise straightforward path to power for both the left and the right. The result marks a dramatic turnaround for a party that had failed three times to enter Parliament before Wong took over as leader less than a year ago.
The conservative bloc has a clearer route to power, but the final result remains uncertain
Clear winners were difficult to identify. By Sunday, the question “who won the election 2026” had become New Zealand’s top Google search. Because the outcome remains so unsettled, parties will not begin formal coalition talks until the final count is released on Nov. 27, when the precise number of seats held by each party will be confirmed.
After 2.8 million ballots were counted on election night, Luxon’s conservative National-led government appeared to be just one seat short of the narrowest possible return to power. Luxon stopped short of declaring victory, instead expressing cautious confidence that he could negotiate a second term.
Speaking to reporters Sunday, Luxon attributed public frustration to a series of global shocks that have battered New Zealand’s trade-dependent economy. He pointed out that governments around the world have faced voter anger over rising living costs.
Hipkins, who was removed from office in 2023 amid widespread dissatisfaction over many of the same economic pressures, did not appear to benefit from the backlash. The left-wing bloc seemed likely to fall short of a majority, though its leaders continued to hold out hope of forming a government — a prospect that appeared increasingly difficult.
Electoral officials were scheduled to begin counting nearly 400,000 so-called special votes Sunday. The ballots include votes cast by New Zealanders living overseas, and the process is expected to take about three weeks.
Special votes have historically added one or two seats to left-leaning parties. That could erase the right’s current razor-thin advantage, although even a boost for the left would probably leave Hipkins struggling to assemble a majority. If no government can be formed, New Zealand could be forced to hold another election.
Luxon tells New Zealanders to ‘calm down’ and take a break from politics
“I think everyone’s over politics, so let’s all have a bit of a break for the next three weeks,” Luxon told reporters Sunday. He will remain at the head of a caretaker government while the parties work toward an agreement.
Luxon said National had a credible path to power and emphasized that it had won more parliamentary seats than any other party. Even so, Saturday’s results represented a difficult night for his party.
Several senior National lawmakers are set to leave politics based on the results so far, including the finance and defense ministers, the speaker of Parliament and the attorney general. The party’s traditional governing partners also increased their support, meaning Luxon will face tougher and more extensive policy demands as he seeks to retain their backing.
The libertarian ACT Party won 13 seats, while the populist New Zealand First Party secured 12. Both are led by experienced political operators. Luxon’s critics, including those who question the former business executive’s political experience since he entered politics in 2020, said his dealings with the parties during his three years in office had exposed his weaknesses.
The election delivered a setback for both major parties
New Zealanders do not vote directly for a prime minister. Instead, they cast one ballot for their preferred political party and another for the candidate they want to represent their local electorate.
New Zealand has a single-chamber Parliament and no state governments, giving the central government broad control over the country’s direction. Governments are elected every three years in the South Pacific nation, which has a population of 5.6 million.
National had won 29.21% of the party vote as of Sunday, a steep decline from its previous result, and claimed all 42 of its seats by winning local electorate contests. Luxon, who faced two separate confidence votes from his own lawmakers this year, also saw his popularity fall further as election day approached.
Labour’s performance was only marginally better, with 29.36% of the party vote. The result appeared to point to a second consecutive election defeat for Hipkins, a longtime politician. Although Labour received roughly the same share of the party vote as National, it had won only 36 seats so far because it captured fewer local electorates.
Smaller left-wing parties gained ground. The environmentally focused Greens won 16 seats, while the Indigenous rights party Te Pāti Māori secured five.
The size of New Zealand’s Parliament can shift because of the way seats are allocated. Based on the current count, 131 lawmakers would be elected, with 66 seats needed for a majority.
Luxon’s conservative bloc currently holds 67 seats, giving it a majority of just one. That narrow advantage could prove difficult to manage in a three-party government involving two emboldened minor parties. The left bloc, meanwhile, held only 57 seats before the historically left-leaning special votes were included.
Even if the final count adds several seats to the left’s total, Hipkins would apparently need Wong’s support to form a government.
Before the election, Luxon repeatedly ruled out negotiations with Wong. On Sunday, he avoided answering whether his razor-thin lead had changed that position.
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