Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa both faced unexpected challenges upon entering the Oval Office.

In a candid moment with Zelenskyy, Trump remarked, “This is going to be great television.”

Such awkward encounters could make any global leader apprehensive about meeting the US president. So, should Albanese be concerned?

The rapport between the US and Australia is decidedly more favorable compared to the strained ties the US has with Zelenskyy, stemming from disputes dating back to 2019, and with South Africa, which has experienced aid reductions and faced controversial accusations from the Trump administration, though these are refuted by South African officials.

Nevertheless, some tension points persist between Washington and Canberra.

The decision made by the federal government to join the likes of the United Kingdom, France and Canada in recognising Palestine as a state put it at odds with Trump, while the Pentagon is unhappy with Australia’s defence spending levels.

Before Trump’s second term began, Australia had already committed to an increase in military spending from about 2 to 2.4 per cent of GDP by 2034 – still well short of the 3.5 per cent US War Secretary Pete Hegseth is calling for.

For the government’s part, it says defence spending is actually far higher than what the raw figures suggest.

“We’re overseeing the largest increase in defence funding outside of war in the history of the country, and secondly, we’ve also been explaining that using the NATO methodology, which is the preferred methodology to compare these things, we’re already at 2.8 per cent of GDP before all our increases kick in,” Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said on Thursday.

“So put that into context: that’s bigger than anyone in Europe, other than Poland and the Baltic states, it’s bigger than the United Kingdom, and it’s larger than any of the other Indo-Pacific partners.”

The latter has been touted as a potential bargaining chip to have Australia exempt from US tariffs – 50 per cent on steel and aluminium, as well as a 10 per cent baseline duty.

And according to defence analyst Michael Shoebridge, there’s another factor in the prime minister’s favour: the sheer weight of other issues Trump is focusing on.

“Trump is a busy man – and when it comes to Australia, that means he’s just not that into us,” he wrote for the Lowy Institute after the meeting was announced. 

“That’s likely to mean he won’t focus as much as we fear on his Aussie visitor and the challenges and differences we’re all so worried about. 

“In the world of 2025, that amounts to good news.”