Share and Follow
Australia might be bracing for a hot and dry period if early indications of an El Niño year come to fruition.
Currently, the Pacific is experiencing a La Niña phase, which typically brings cooler and wetter weather patterns.
It’s important to note that the Pacific doesn’t always alternate directly between El Niño and La Niña; it can also maintain a neutral condition, which is anticipated for this autumn.
Weatherzone has indicated that, “The shift to a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in the Pacific Ocean this autumn could pave the way for a possible transition to El Niño later in the year.”
They further clarified, “Although this isn’t certain, it’s not unusual for El Niño to succeed La Niña once the tropical Pacific Ocean moves through a neutral phase mid-year.”
The Bureau of Meteorology currently rates the chances of an El Niño developing in the second half of the year at about 90 per cent, though other models offer lower odds.
“One important thing to note about the current El Niño forecasts is that predictions made at this time of year are less reliable than forecasts initiated after the southern hemisphere’s autumn,” Weatherzone said.
“This period of reduced certainty is known as the ‘autumn predictability barrier’, and it means that forecasters should have a clearer idea about the likelihood of El Niño as we get closer to winter in the southern hemisphere.”
Weatherzone reported there were also signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerging later in the year.
The IOD affects weather on Australia’s west coast, while the El Niño/La Niña systems affect weather in the east.
“While it’s too early to know whether El Niño or a positive IOD will develop later this year, there are early signs that these two climate drivers could tip the scales towards warmer and drier weather during the second half of 2026,” Weatherzone said.
“Monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are responding to this, hinting at abnormally warm and dry conditions over Australia during the upcoming winter.”
NEVER MISS A STORY: Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.