According to Australia’s former ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher, a genuine partnership between Australia and China may remain elusive due to fundamentally differing worldviews, making efforts toward such a goal seemingly futile.
In a detailed analysis presented to the Lowy Institute, Fletcher highlighted potential disruptions to the “modest new normal” in bilateral relations. He pointed to unpredictable factors, such as a potential Chinese military move on Taiwan, which could further exacerbate tensions.
The transition of Australian government leadership following the 2022 federal elections provided a much-needed reset in the strained Australia-China relationship. Despite this, moments of tension persisted, notably through provocative military maneuvers involving Chinese forces, Fletcher explained.
International outcry was ignited when China launched a ballistic missile into the South Pacific in July, an event that unfolded shortly after Australia and Fiji entered a landmark mutual defense agreement.
Amidst diplomatic strains that escalated during the COVID-19 pandemic under the leadership of then Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the Albanese administration moved to soothe relations with China, aiming for a more stable diplomatic footing.
China slapped $20 billion in trade sanctions on Australian exports, measures that have slowly been wound back.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner and is the destination for about a third of the nation’s exports.
Fletcher said China had not given up hope of drawing Australia closer into its orbit, while Australia was more focused on consolidating its current relationship.
“But this relationship is unlikely ever to become genuinely close — like the relaxed, intimate fellowship Australia enjoys with like-minded partners elsewhere in its region and beyond,” he said.
“The gulf in terms of diverging world views and national security agendas is simply too wide.
“It would be pointless for Canberra to pursue such a goal; it recognises this and is realistic.”
The “mismatch” of world views made the relationship vulnerable to disruption, with key risks including another round of serious disagreements or the cataclysm of a conflict, including the use of force against Taiwan.
“An upheaval or conflict is always a possibility, though not in my opinion a strong one at present,” the former diplomat said.
China considers Taiwan, a self-governed democracy, part of its territory.
Australia would be on firmer ground when facing China if policies had cross-party support and politicians did not “seek to exploit difficulties for domestic advantage”, Fletcher said.
“Bipartisanship produces policy consistency and limits China’s ability to play games within the Australian system,” he said.
Fletcher was Australia’s ambassador to China from 2019 to 2023 and led the negotiating team in 2014 that helped seal a free-trade agreement between the nations.