Orbán’s Historic Setback: How Hungary’s Defeat Signals a Stronger European Union

Hungary’s long-serving nationalist leader, Viktor Orbán, has acknowledged defeat following a sweeping election victory by the rising opposition party, Tisza. This outcome marks a significant blow to his supporters in Russia and the Trump administration in the United States.

Observers are interpreting the election results as a triumph for Europe. Orbán has frequently clashed with other European Union members, especially regarding foreign policy and adherence to the rule of law.

“Tonight, the heart of Europe beats stronger in Hungary,” declared EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a statement on X. “Hungary has chosen Europe. A nation reclaims its European course, strengthening the Union.”

With 46 percent of votes tallied, results indicate that the center-right, pro-EU Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, has secured 135 seats in the 199-member parliament. This gives them a critical two-thirds majority, surpassing Orbán’s Fidesz party.

“While the election results are not yet final, the situation is understandable and clear,” Orbán commented at the Fidesz campaign headquarters.

“The election result is painful for us, but clear.”

Pollsters predicted a record voter turnout, with Hungarian television showing long queues outside some voting stations in Budapest. Data half an hour before polls were due to close showed 77.8 per cent of voters casting their ballots, up from 67.8 per cent four years earlier.

Significant implications for Europe

If the final results confirm the early readings, an end to Orbán’s time in power after 16 years would have significant implications not only for Hungary, but for the EU, Ukraine and beyond.

It would likely spell an end to Hungary’s adversarial role inside the EU, possibly opening the way for a 90 billion euro ($150 billion) loan to war-battered Ukraine blocked by Orbán.

Defeat for Orbán could also mean the eventual release of EU funds to Hungary that the bloc had suspended due to what Brussels said was Orbán’s erosion of democratic standards.

Orbán’s exit would also deprive Russian President Vladimir Putin of his main ally in the EU and send shockwaves through Western right-wing circles, including the White House.

In Hungary, a Tisza victory could open the way for reforms that the party says would aim to combat corruption and restore the independence of the judiciary and other institutions.

However, the extent of such reforms will depend on whether Tisza can secure the two-thirds constitutional majority it would need to reverse much of Orbán’s legacy.

Economic stagnation hurt Orbán

Orbán, a eurosceptic, carved out a model of an “illiberal democracy” seen as a blueprint by Trump’s Make America Great Again movement and its admirers in Europe.

But many Hungarians have grown increasingly weary of Orbán, 62, after three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs as well as reports of oligarchs close to the government amassing more wealth.

Tisza’s leader Magyar appears to have successfully tapped into this frustration.

Casting his vote for Tisza in the Hungarian capital, Mihaly Bacsi, 27, said the country needed change.

“We need an improvement in public mood, there is too much tension in many areas and the current government only fuels these sentiments,” he said.

Another voter, who gave her name as Zsuzsa, said she wanted continuity.

“I would really like if all the results that have been achieved in recent years remain — and I am terribly afraid of the war,” she said, referring to the conflict raging in Ukraine, Hungary’s eastern neighbour.

Orbán sought to cast Sunday’s election as a choice between “war and peace”.

During campaigning, the government blanketed the country with signs warning that Magyar would drag Hungary into Russia’s war with Ukraine, something he strongly denies.

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