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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will today hand down its latest interest rate decision, but borrowers hoping to be handed another rate cut are likely to be disappointed.
Strong inflation figures have cooled hopes, with markets forecasting only an 8 per cent chance the central bank will announce a cash rate reduction at 2.30pm today.
The consensus among economists is the RBA will maintain the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, with mortgage holders unlikely to see a cut before November.
The cautious strategy by the RBA comes on the back of ABS figures released earlier this month showing inflation hit a 12-month high for August.
The annual trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, was at 2.6 per cent for the month.
A panel of 32 financial experts quizzed about the next rates move came to the unanimous conclusion the RBA has little room to make a cut today.
Despite strong consumer spending, rising inflation and increasing unemployment paint a mixed economic picture.
The experts canvassed by Finder said the RBA was seeking a step-by-step reduction in the cash rate.
“No doubt the RBA is on a slide down with the cash rate.
“However, the several promised cuts will be spread over quite some time, and we should not expect a cut at every single meeting,” Tomasz Wozniak, from the University of Melbourne, said.
It’s likely mortgage holders will be left eying the next RBA board meeting on November 4, which is also Melbourne Cup Day, for any cash rate cut.
Sebastien Mullins, head of multi-asset and fixed income at global investment firm Schroders, told Today this morning that markets are pricing in a 50 per cent chance reduction by the RBA in November.
“Either they cut or don’t cut, we’ll have the October number or the official September inflation data by then. So they’ll actually have more clarity at that point.”